We’re only one full week into the 2026 season and, believe it or not, the race for the College Football Playoff is already taking shape. With only a handful of significant games in Week 1, the overall picture is still murky. Most teams did what they needed to do, while others made things considerably more interesting than they needed to be and a few already have some serious work to do if they want to get back into the conversation.
With such a condensed regular season in college football, one game can change how a team is viewed. Expectations before the season are one thing, but once actual results start to come in, projections shift and the path to the postseason can look much different than it did a week ago.
This exercise isn’t necessarily about projecting what the CFP field would look like if the season ended today. It’s more forward-looking at where each team stands in the race and how its path to the 12-team field looks entering each week. To do so, we’ve broken the 68 Power Four teams, including Notre Dame, into five tiers:
- The favorites — In the best position to make the CFP right now
- On the bubble — Firmly in the conversation but with plenty left to prove
- Still work to do — Haven’t done enough yet to separate themselves
- Longshots that need help — Still alive, but with a much tougher path
- Eliminated — No chance of making it
Obviously there is a lot of football left to be played, and although some teams’ chances are minuscule, nobody is eliminated just yet. So, which Power Four teams are in the best position as it stands now and who is already making things harder on themselves heading into Week 2?
