In brief: Just a few thoughts to share on Tropical Storm Beryl tonight—basically some things I’ll be looking for on Sunday. If you’re looking for a nuts-and-bolts forecast of what impacts to expect in Houston on Monday, please see our post from earlier today, which holds up fine tonight. We’ll have a comprehensive update for you first thing in the morning.
When will Beryl start intensifying again?
As of late Saturday night, Beryl remains a high-end tropical storm with 60 mph winds. Its intensity has not changed much today, as expected, due to shear and entrainment of dry air. However, as we’ve been discussing, Beryl is moving into a more favorable environment tonight and on Sunday, and therefore it is virtually certain to re-strengthen.
One key question at this point is when Beryl starts to rev back up. This is because once Beryl starts to increase its winds, it likely won’t stop intensifying until it runs into Texas. So on Sunday I’ll be watching to see how soon Beryl’s winds start to increase, and how fast its central pressure (currently 993 mb) starts to fall.
A silver lining: Beryl is moving at a good clip
One bit of good news is that the storm is moving a bit faster than expected, so it will have less time over water to get going. Some of our best models, including the European and GFS models, now bring the storm to the Texas coast around 2 to 4 am CT on Monday, several hours faster than previously thought. This will give Beryl less time to rapidly intensify.
The forward motion will also help with rainfall totals, both at landfall and after it moves onshore. Houstonians are justifiably jumpy when it comes to inland rainfall from hurricanes after Harvey, and this storm will make landfall only a little way up the coast from where Harvey did. But Beryl is no Harvey. In fact, the forecast for Beryl’s forward motion after landfall is also trending faster. So while I do expect to see some very intense rainfall in the Houston metro area on Monday, increasingly it looks as though the heavy rain will exit to our north by Monday night or early Tuesday.
We should have better clarity on Beryl’s impacts in Houston by tomorrow, as we’ll be less than a day before landfall. The bottom line is that everyone in the Houston area, but especially residents south and west of the city, should be prepared for heavy rainfall and higher winds on Monday. How much rain, and how strong the wind will be is something we’ll try to fully pin down in tomorrow’s forecast. This will, of course, depend to some extent on the rapid intensification (or not) of Beryl discussed above.
Have a good night, everyone.
