Bobby Slowik knows that he needs to get Joe Mixon back on track.
The Texans‘ run game, which has carried an inconsistent offense all season, has sputtered in recent weeks. Mixon averaged 95.5 rushing yards per game over his first eight games of the season. In his past four appearances, that’s down to 50.8, including a 14-carry, 57-yard effort in Saturday’s loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.
The way Slowik sees it, as Houston starts its homestretch by hosting the Baltimore Ravens on Christmas, he needs to call more runs — even if the Texans are tempted to throw the ball more, as they have the past two weeks.
Since Week 12, Mixon is averaging 15 carries, down from 21.5 through Week 11.
“Joe is not going to get 100 yards when I am giving him the ball 12 times,” Houston’s offensive coordinator said Monday. “In playoff football, the run game is going to be a huge part.”
Regaining an efficient rushing attack is all the more paramount for the Texans (9-6) in the wake of Tank Dell being ruled out for the season. The second-year wide receiver dislocated his kneecap and tore his ACL on a touchdown grab against Kansas City, injuries that have taken an emotional toll on Houston. Dell is one of the Texans’ most beloved players, including one of quarterback C.J. Stroud’s best friends.
From a football standpoint, the franchise has lost its second-best receiver.
Dell ran a team-high 310 routes from a wide alignment, according to Next Gen Stats. His absence will be felt most in the intermediate passing game, on passes between 10 and 19 air yards. That’s where Dell had 323 of his 667 receiving yards this season (48.4%), per NGS. It’s where he posted a plus-13.4% catch rate over expected and plus-26.3 expected points added in the receiving game. Dell and Nico Collins are the only Texans wide receivers who have a catch rate over expected and receiving EPA in double digits (that includes Stefon Diggs, who sustained a season-ending knee injury in Week 8), showing just how much playmaking Houston has lost on the outside.
For further context, Stroud has targeted the intermediate level of the field on 23.3% of his passes this season, the 10th-highest rate in the league, per NGS. He targeted that portion of the field at a league-best rate in his record-setting rookie season.
The intermediate level has been a massive part of Stroud’s success to start his career, and now he’ll be without a key reason why.
“You’ve got to keep chopping wood, keep carrying water,” Stroud said. “The position we’re in, it’s not a lot of times where you can sulk in your feelings for very long. You’ve got to just keep rolling.”
Enter Diontae Johnson, whom the Texans claimed off waivers from the Ravens on Monday.
In 2023, his last full season with the Pittsburgh Steelers, Johnson was most effective in terms of catch rate over expected, receiving EPA and EPA per target in the intermediate portion of the field, according to NGS. Of his 717 receiving yards, 310 of them (or 43.2%) came from intermediate passes. Also, 78.2% of his routes in 2023 came out of a wide alignment, another indication that Johnson could be a good addition to replace Dell at this point of the season.
The issue is that Houston is guaranteed only three more games in 2024 — its last two regular-season games and a wild-card matchup. And Johnson playing against his old team, the Ravens, on Christmas, just two days after being claimed, appears unlikely. In fact, coach DeMeco Ryans on Monday said it would be “unrealistic” for a new player to get up to speed fast enough on a short week to be able to play.
In reality, Johnson will likely have just two guaranteed games with Houston, which is a very limited amount of time to get acclimated with Houston’s playbook and build a rapport with Stroud.
Even if Johnson, who caught only one pass for 6 yards during a six-game stay with Baltimore filled with drama, is motivated to end his 2024 on a good note ahead of his contract year, the reality is that his impact on a playoff run figures to be small.
That means the Texans will need to lean heavily on tight end Dalton Schultz to fill Dell’s void, and more will be expected of receivers John Metchie, Robert Woods and Xavier Hutchinson. The defense, which has played at a Super Bowl-caliber level, will need to maintain its elite play. Houston will get starting linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair back from suspension for the regular-season finale against Tennessee next week, an additional boost.
But getting Mixon and the run game back on track is key for an injury-depleted team, starting Wednesday against Baltimore.
“Just because we’re in this position doesn’t mean you get to feel sorry for yourself or anything like that,” Stroud said. “No, you’ve got to keep rolling, and I think us playing will help. Winning helps. Of course, it doesn’t fill the whole void of the hurt, but it also can make you feel better in the moment. But I think the main thing for us is just to … take these next weeks as seriously as we can and focus on one thing at a time.
“I think that’s the recipe for what the rest of the season could be.”
Ben Arthur is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.
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