2025 NFL Betting: Best starting QB bets

• Kenny Pickett is a value bet to capture the Browns’ job: The former first-round pick may not move the needle with the public, but he can orchestrate an offense without shooting this team in the foot.

• Could Daniel Jones overtake Anthony Richardson? Jones has generated an 89.1 clean-pocket PFF passing grade and a 72.8 PFF passing grade on early downs, an asset to a Colts offense that will look to be more consistent in 2025.

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With training camps set to begin in just two weeks, position battles will heat up all over the NFL. None are more important than those for starting quarterback jobs.

While much can change between now and the start of the NFL preseason, here is a look at how each quarterback competition is shaping up on the betting markets, and who you should target.   

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Cleveland Browns

Although the attention has been centered on Joe Flacco and Shedeur Sanders in the public eye, the Browns may not share the same sentiment when it comes to evaluating their next signal-caller.

Cleveland faces the most difficult strength of schedule in September — playing the Bengals, Ravens, Packers and Lions — so it’s unlikely they would throw either of their rookie passers, Sanders and Dillon Gabriel, to the wolves. That leaves a veteran as the more likely option.  

While Flacco has familiarity with Kevin Stefanski’s system, having won Comeback Player of the Year with the Browns in 2023, it’s worth noting that it wasn’t all smooth sailing for the veteran. During his five starts, he earned a PFF passing grade above 67.0 just once, tossing 11 big-time throws to 11 turnover-worthy plays during that span.  

As Cleveland sports analyst Jay Crawford pointed out, when the Browns were shopping for their next quarterback this offseason, their first decision was to trade for Kenny Pickett. The former first-round pick may not move the needle with the public, but he can orchestrate an offense without shooting this team in the foot. As the Steelers’ starter, he managed to generate 31 big-time throws to just 18 turnover-worthy plays.  

Pick: Kenny Pickett (+200)

Indianapolis Colts 

The Colts fanned the flames of competition this offseason by bringing in Daniel Jones to battle former top-five pick Anthony Richardson for the starting quarterback job. As the competition started to simmer heading into minicamp, the job was seen as Richardson’s to lose. 

But a reaggravated shoulder injury — the same shoulder that ended Richardson’s rookie campaign in 2023 –— resulted in the incumbent missing minicamp, giving Jones the leg up in the race.

While Richardson has all the talent to retake the reins, his inconsistency as a passer has hindered his progression so far. Keeping the offense on schedule and playing in rhythm has been difficult for him, as he’s charted below the 25th percentile in clean-pocket PFF passing grade (68.6) and PFF passing grade on first and second downs (57.7) across his career. 

Conversely, Jones has generated an 89.1 clean-pocket PFF passing grade and a 72.8 PFF passing grade on early downs. But more importantly, he ranks in the 85th percentile at avoiding negatively graded throws over that span.  

Pick: Daniel Jones (-106)

New Orleans Saints 

The Saints have several questions to answer on the quarterback front heading into training camp. Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener bring experience to the table, but given their struggles last season — ranking dead last in the NFL in PFF passing grade (50.4) when Derek Carr wasn’t on the field — it’s unlikely that either will capture the job outright. 

Rattler remains in the mix as this quarterback room learns new head coach Kellen Moore’s system. While Rattler earned just a 49.4 PFF passing grade across seven games in 2024, he remains the youngest quarterback in the room, which may work to his advantage. 

However, New Orleans believed in Tyler Shough’s ability enough to draft him in the second round over other high-profile prospects. Despite dealing with injuries in college and turning 26 years old by the time the season starts, the first-year quarterback does possess redeeming qualities as a passer, having earned an 87.7 PFF passing grade in his lone season at Louisville. 

The job is likely Shough’s to lose, and oddsmakers seem to agree. But this may be a market to monitor throughout training camp for better odds to bet, because -300 is not a spot to target. 

Pick: No bet, but worth monitoring

New York Giants 

Although the Giants took a big swing to move up in the 2025 NFL Draft to select Jaxson Dart in the first round, all indications out of New York point to Russell Wilson being the starter come Week 1. 

The investments at quarterback are viewed through a long-term lens for Brian Daboll’s offense, with the plan likely being to have Dart learn the NFL game from the sideline behind experienced veterans in Wilson and Jameis Winston. The hope is that Dart’s development can emulate the career progression of some elite signal-callers who sat early, such as Patrick Mahomes.    

While that’s the plan, the saying goes, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” Many coaches have tried to implement similar plans, only for their young quarterback to be too good to bench for long. Given Dart’s impressive grading profile at Ole Miss, he very well could be knocking on the door sooner rather than later. 

Jaxson Dart’s Stable Metric Percentile Ranks

Pick: No bet, but worth monitoring