With the calendar flipping to December, it’s time to star backs to rise in big games.
We saw that Thursday night with Jahmyr Gibbs‘ massive showing, and based on where I’m seeing value in the prop markets for Sunday’s games, I’m hoping we get more of the same then.
Utilizing our NFL projections as a guide, here are some NFL player props that look appealing for this week.
All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.
NFL Prop Picks for Week 14
Josh Jacobs Over 77.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Josh Jacobs is:
- Rested
- Further removed from his knee injury
- In a huge game
- Facing a porous rush defense
I’m in.
Even on Thanksgiving, Jacobs had a respectable role, and that was just 11 days after his knee injury. He turned 17 carries into 83 yards, enough for an over on this prop. Jacobs has played 9 full games this year where he wasn’t listed as questionable going in, and he has gone over 77.5 rushing yards in 5 of them.
That alone won’t justify a price of -114. But here, the Green Bay Packers are 6.5-point home favorites against a Chicago Bears defense that ranks 18th against the run, according to numberFire’s metrics. Although the secondary is healthier, the linebacking corps is still beat up, incentivizing more ground-and-pound from Green Bay.
With this game deciding who will be in first place in the NFC North entering the stretch run, I’m expecting a heavy dose of Jacobs. That’s enough for me to fire even at what is a relatively lofty number.
Chase Brown Over 75.5 Rushing Plus Receiving Yards (-114)
The return of Samaje Perine does tangibly downgrade expectations for Chase Brown. That’s fully baked into this number, though, creating value on Brown’s over.
We have a six-game sample on Brown playing with Perine fully healthy and either Joe Flacco or Joe Burrow starting. In the first three games of that split, Brown went well under this number all three times, maxing out at 65 yards from scrimmage.
His totals in the past three are 100, 105, and 113. That 113 came last week in Perine’s return where Brown still had 15 carries and 7 targets. The snap rate goes down, but the production remains.
That should be the case this weekend against the Buffalo Bills. Opposing ground games have bullied them all year as they have let up the second highest schedule-adjusted explosive run rate to backs. The Bengals are fourth on the offensive side of that equation, and having both Burrow and Tee Higgins in the mix should only open up more space.
There is some risk in Brown due to Perine’s snaps, so he could be better suited for an alt market (where you can reduce your stake size and get a higher reward for the risk you’re inheriting). He’s +235 to have 100-plus yards from scrimmage, which is pretty attractive. This baseline number is just low enough where I have a hard time passing it up.
Cooper Kupp Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Cooper Kupp has played four games with Rashid Shaheed and gone under this number in three of those. Seems bad if we want to back an over!
We just haven’t seen Shaheed make a massive dent in Kupp’s role, so I’m fine betting on some positive regression.
In that four-game stretch, Kupp’s target share is 16.7%. That’s down from 20.8% before Kupp got hurt in Week 7, so there has been some shift for sure.
But Kupp is starting to get some more downfield looks, which is a nice surprise. His aDOT is up to 8.9 yards in this span from 8.2 for the full season. He and Sam Darnold just haven’t connected as much, something that should course correct as the sample expands and they get to play indoors.
Kupp also hasn’t been far from this number in the games he has gone under. He has 23-plus receiving yards in all three of his whiffs in this stretch. Once we get his connection with Darnold back cooking again, the overs should start to hit, allowing me to back Kupp even with Shaheed stealing some volume.
Jack Bech Under 20.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
With Dont’e Thornton Jr. trending toward sitting this week, Jack Bech‘s role should increase. With this team, though, that’s not guaranteed, and his matchup with the Denver Broncos is as rough as it gets.
With Thornton leaving early last week, Bech played 54.3% of the snaps, his highest rate since Tyler Lockett joined the team. Bech turned that into 22 yards, enough to go over this number.
The problem is that snaps can only do so much for you; you need to earn targets on that volume, and Bech has struggled there this year. He’s currently at 1.13 yards per route run with a target on just 14.9% of his routes.
He’ll now go up against a Broncos team that has let up just 1.23 yards per route run to receivers on the year, the second best mark in the league. Bech’s pending role shift matters a lot; I just don’t think it’s enough to get me to this number.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.
