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QB desperation means mistakes
I love the draft. You know this.
With that, we’re a week and a day from round one of the 2025 NFL draft.
Color me giddy.
So, as the smoke screens get thicker, and the NFL decision makers are using Adam Schefter, Field Yates and every other NFL ‘insider’ as pawns in the chess/checkers predraft dance, we know little.
But we can believe much.
It feels forgone that the Tennessee Titans will take Cam Ward, the former Miami/Washington State/Incarnate Ward QB, at 1.
It’s also proven that QBs going 1 is as guaranteed as a lottery ticket.
How many of these guys over the last 20 years taken first would remain in that spot if we redrafted? Let’s explore, and this is only assuming QBs drafted in round 1 because we know the desperation of the teams that reached with the first pick.
2024 — Caleb Williams 1 (Jayden Daniels went 2);
2023 — Bryce Young 1, (CJ Stroud went 2);
2021 — Trevor Lawrence 1 (Lawrence);
2020 — Burrow 1 (Burrow);
2019 — Kyler Murray 1 (Murray, only because that class was trash);
2018 — Baker Mayfield 1 (Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson went in the first round);
2016 — Jared Goff 1 (Dak Prescott went in the third round);
2015 — Jameis Winston 1 (Winston in terms of QBs because this was another trash class);
2012 — Andrew Luck 1 (Luck);
2011 — Cam Newton 1 (Newton);
2010 — Sam Bradford 1 (Bradford, but again, a bad class in which Tim Tebow and Jimmy Clausen were the next QBs off the board);
2009 — Matthew Stafford 1 (Stafford);
2007 — JaMarcus Russell 1 (None, because Brady Quinn was the next QB off the board, and like ’10 and ’15 there were numerous future Hall of Famers picked after the QB whiff);
2005 — Alex Smith 1 (Aaron Rodgers went 24).
The theme has two slots with a major ripple.
There are trash classes, and while terrible teams are normally QB-starved, reaching at 1 is almost always a mistake.
There are talented QB classes, but even then, guys who have spent months and years scouting these prospects miss as often as Shaq from the FT line. Even perceived lead-pipe locks like Lawrence and Luck underachieved. (Lawrence in performance; Luck in career length.)
So, if you reach for Cam Ward — and especially Shedeur Sanders — that’s on you.
Playoff basketball
I watched less NBA this year than any year in a long, Long, LONG time.
But the playoffs are here, and last night drew my eye.
And Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler together are going to be a problem for everyone.
Because the former is the best shooter ever — sorry, Reggie Miller, sorry, Ray Allen, sorry, Larry Legend — and his Warriors mates do an amazing job of loading the plates of the GOAT shooter.
Second, Playoff Jimmy is real.
Like a healthy Kawhi and a Kobe in his prime — and dare we say it — a matured MJ, Playoff Jimmy is a cut-throat knife fighter when the calendar flips.
He attacks the rim. He does not settle for 3s. He physically guards 1-thru-5 — dude was boxing out 9-foot-6 Zach Edey last night — and rebounds like a menace.
Is there anyone who does not want to see a Lakers-Warriors second-round matchup?
Portal primer
The portal opened this morning and will remain open until Friday.
There are thousands of names either in the portal or rumored to be exploring their options to portal.
(Side question: We are all good with every variation of “portal” at this point, right? Be it “to portal,” “portalling” or even the “portalization” of the game. Discuss.)
Hey, anyone hear of any big names from the greater-Knoxville area looking for portalling possibilities? Seems like someone may be in there but not sure if it has been reported.
Moving on.
One of the early wins happened for Oklahoma-hot-seat-HC Brent Venables, who signed Jaydn Ott, a versatile and dynamic running back who portalled from Cal.
Among the names in the portal, none may be better than former La. Tech WR Decoldest Crawford.
This and that
› So Dallas GM Nico Harrison says he stands by the decision to deal generational talent Luka Doncic for Anthony Davis because “defense wins championships.” OK. Sounds like ownership wants Harrison to wear this decision, which had to be signed off on every level, in my mind. Been a spring filled with curious PR decisions for multiple Nicos, huh?
› Moment of silence for the last known survivor of Pearl Harbor, who died earlier this month. Vaughn Drake Jr. was 106.
› Like all things photography, the Mrs. 5-at-10 told me about Ken Griffey Jr. — yes, that one — shooting photos at Augusta National.
› Braves played. Braves lost. Hmmm. Guys, we need to win a game, then win another. If you can win a third in a row, that’s called a winning streak.
› Jimmy Kimmel thinks liberals attacking comedians for sensitive topics — a key cog to that nebulous term “cancel culture” — is the reason Trump won the White House. Hmmm.
› There’s rich, there’s wealthy and then there’s stupid, crazy money. Like someone not only being able to afford but be willing to order a $41,000-plus cocktail.
› The opposite of Playoff Jimmy may be Play-In Trae Young, who was ejected in the Hawk’s play-in loss last night for “making a mockery of the game” in the words of the referee.
Today’s questions
We got some ‘Which Way’ options above on this Which Way Wednesday.
Which No. 1 overall QB listed the best was the biggest miss? Which was the biggest home run?
Which way should the Titans go — QB1 or best available?
Which NBA playoff contender is no one giving enough respect to?
As for today, April 16, let’s review.
On this day in 1929 the Yankees become the first MLB team to wear permanent numbers. The numbers were issued according to where hitters were listed in the batting order, hence Babe got 3 and Gehrig got 4. (What did the guy who was handed 24 think?)
Charlie Chaplin would have been 136 today.
Henry Mancini — Spy, they called him Boom Boom Mancini, right? — would have been 101 today.
A couple of dudes in the GOAT conversation celebrate B-Days today. Bill Belichick is 73. Kareem is 78.
Other than Kareem, who else makes the Rushmore of sports stars who have famously changed their names?
