California’s cannabis market, which has long been considered the dominant cannabis market in the U.S., has some competition.
As Michigan approaches its fifth anniversary of legal recreational marijuana sales in the state, it has overtaken California as the largest cannabis market in the U.S., according to some metrics that have not been widely reported but are tracked by the cannabis market intelligence firms and were shared with the Detroit Free Press.
For example, since December 2022, Michigan has sold more total grams of flower and units of other cannabis products (called equivalent unit sales) in both the recreational and medical market compared with California, according to data from BDSA, a cannabis market intelligence firm that tracks sales via point-of-sale data from a panel of participating cannabis retailers.
Another cannabis market intelligence firm, Headset, shows Michigan selling more units than California (defined as a single item that a customer buys, such as a pre-rolled joint, a multipack of pre-rolled joints, a jar of flower or a pack of gummies) since June 2023. Its data shows that in May, Michigan sold 24.2 million units, while California sold 17.3 million units.
These numbers have not been widely reported because most comparisons look at the size of the market in terms of dollar sales. By that metric, California is still a larger market than Michigan. California sold $5.1 billion in recreational marijuana products in 2023, while Michigan sold about $3 billion in recreational marijuana products.
The reason for this is that prices for cannabis products are much cheaper in Michigan compared with California, so even if consumers buy more products in Michigan, the total amount they spend is less than what consumers buying fewer products in California spend in total.
“There are a lot of issues on the ground in California … it’s always been expensive to do business there,” Michael Arrington, a principal analyst at Colorado-based BDSA, said on a BDSA market forecast update webinar in March, citing issues in California that include fairly high taxes.
State officials in California acknowledge that illicit cannabis is a major competitor to legal cannabis sales in that state as well, likely because many municipalities don’t allow recreational marijuana businesses in their communities and illicit cannabis is often cheaper compared with legal marijuana.
In Michigan, prices for legal cannabis have dropped significantly since recreational marijuana sales started because of an oversupply of cannabis, which has led to lower prices for consumers but slimmer margins for retailers.
More on Michigan’s pricing dynamics:Plummeting Michigan cannabis prices are good news for consumers but not for small sellers
More on the impact of low prices:Michigan cannabis companies struggle to survive in increasingly competitive market
That means Michigan consumers can buy more cannabis products for less money compared with what the average consumer in California might spend on legal weed, which is reflected in the data.
Michigan sold 56.8 million equivalent units of cannabis products in April, compared with 44.6 million in California that same month, according to BDSA data.
BDSA figures for unit sales (defined as a single packaged cannabis product) paint a slightly different picture compared with the data Headset provided, but still show Michigan selling more units of cannabis products than California in certain recent months, such as in February and March. Michigan’s unit sales first passed California’s in December, BDSA data shows.
Not only is this data notable considering that Michigan’s recreational cannabis industry is younger than California’s industry, but also because Michigan’s population is about a quarter of the size of California’s population.
Michigan has the highest per capita sales in the U.S. at $132.41, according to data provided by Headset, which is about triple California’s $44.21 per capita sales, Headset data showed.
Still, BDSA expects California will continue to have a bigger recreational marijuana market than Michigan in terms of dollar sales for at least the next few years.
Arrington said as issues in California “begin to settle,” the market will grow at a moderate rate to about $6.1 billion in 2028. Michigan, meanwhile, is forecast to be a $4 billion market that year.
Contact Adrienne Roberts: amroberts@freepress.com.
