Every summer we spend one week looking into the NHL’s landscape of contracts. The good, the bad, and then all of them — a deep dive ranking which teams are spending their future money best.
That’s what we’re doing today: putting a dollar figure on every non-ELC player’s remaining contract and then comparing it with what he’s actually paid. And yes, this year we’ve finally included goalies.
None of this is a guarantee, it’s merely a snapshot at this particular moment of where each player currently stands. It’s not set in stone. It’s the same criteria as the best and worst contract lists which is all about probability — showing which side of the line every contract is on and whether the player is likely to be worth it or not. The longer the contract goes, the more that excess value — good or bad — can add up. Each player’s contract grade takes both into account: how much value they have over the contract per year and in total.
When it comes to forecasting contracts, how a player ages and how the cap increases are major factors. Each player’s value is projected out into the future and a cap hit percentage is determined based on that. Apply that to the expected salary cap for each future year and you get each player’s expected contract value. That means younger players will look a lot better here, especially if they’re on a contract with a lengthy term. You may not agree with every player’s value on this list, but at least keep in mind where the model estimates are coming from. It’s about the future, not the present.
Term and cap growth also play an outsized role in how certain players are valued. A player on a one-year deal is judged against an $88 million cap, but a player on an eight-year deal is judged on what the cap projects to be in each of those eight seasons. With an estimated 3.5 percent inflation each season, that’s an average salary cap of $100 million.
Here’s how each team stacks up with regard to the efficiency of all the player contracts they currently have signed.
The goal here is to grade contracts empirically with the same context being applied to each player across the league: How much value does each player bring to the table per year and over the life of the contract? The way that’s measured comes from comparing a player’s Net Rating and the expected salary that comes with it to a player’s current contract.
What players have already done holds no merit, this is about the future value of the deal. Contract clauses and bonus structure are important, but not considered in this assessment. Players on LTIR were not considered.
The total projected value for every contract listed below is $2.55 billion, or $79.5 million per team. The total actual value for every contract listed (including dead money) is $2.47 billion, or $77.2 million per team. Both are roughly in line with the league’s salary midpoint.
Last season: 1st
For the second year in a row, the Florida Panthers finished first in the cap efficiency rankings and that’s not something that should be up for debate. It’s not even close. No other team is set up better for the long haul than the Panthers who are sitting on $125 million in surplus value — $75 million more than the next-best team. That’s not a no-income-tax state advantage, it’s a best-managed team in the NHL advantage.
Almost every deal on the books is cheaper than it should be, so much so that we can pretty much ignore the cap disaster happening between the pipes. It simply doesn’t matter when the Panthers have four core pieces locked up for a long time at well below market rate. Two of those (Gustav Forsling and Matthew Tkachuk) landed on the top 10 contracts list and another (Sam Reinhart) was an honorable mention. Most teams would love to have Aleksander Barkov at only $10 million for the next six years and that only registers as the fourth-best deal of the bunch.
Combined, the quartet makes just under $34 million. That should be closer to $50 million — how do you even begin to compete with that? If that’s not enough, pretty much every other skater deal on the books is a winner too. And several by a significant margin. For the rest of the league, it just doesn’t feel fair.
The Panthers won the 2024 Stanley Cup and their financial acumen was an immensely important reason. No team gets more out of their dollar than the Panthers and it now shows in their trophy case. With the gold they have on the books, it probably won’t be their last.
Last season: 8th
The Stanley Cup runner-ups look like the front-runner for next season. What Edmonton lacks in long-term promise compared to Florida, it makes up for in the short term with a massive annual surplus that leads the league. The Oilers’ roster being $32 million better than their current cap hits is $7 million ahead of Florida, the next-best team.
That stems from the team’s best players being on stronger short-term deals. As good as Barkov, Tkachuk, Reinhart and Forsling are for $34 million, having Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman and Evan Bouchard for just $30.4 million is even better. That’s a $26 million yearly surplus on those four alone.
Two of those deals expire in one year which is why the 2024-25 season is The Year for the Oilers to finally make it happen. Add Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Mattias Ekholm and Stuart Skinner to that and things look even better. Edmonton is getting a whole lot of value for a very cheap price — for now, anyway.
Things would look even better without Darnell Nurse’s onerous deal on the books too (and $12.4 million in dead money). Nurse unsurprisingly landed on the top 10 worst contracts list and his deal is the biggest headache on the roster. That the Oilers made the Stanley Cup Final despite overpaying him by over $3 million per year is a testament to how good the top of the roster is otherwise — and how good their deals are.
They better take advantage of that advantage while they can as things will start to look a lot harder next season when some overdue raises start kicking in.
Last season: 3rd
Having two of the absolute best players in the world on bargain deals helps greatly with where Colorado currently stands. Nathan MacKinnon earned a spot on the best contracts list and he gives the Avalanche $27 million in surplus value on his deal alone. Cale Makar, with three years left, adds another $15 million on top of that (and that figure would be higher if he wasn’t coming off a down year, he was closer to a league-max player at the start of last season).
Those are home run deals that have some trickle-down effects with players playing for less for the privilege of being a part of this situation. Jonathan Drouin can certainly attest to that and Artturi Lehkonen probably could’ve got more than he did too.
There are a couple of hiccups here and there (Miles Wood and Samuel Girard being the main ones), but overall it’s a pretty clean balance sheet that features a league-high nine players earning $2 million less than they should. Combine that with two of the best deals in hockey and it’s easy to see why Colorado lands so high — and why the Avalanche are perennial contenders.
Last season: 2nd
Carolina’s biggest wins were already on the books before that, though. Sebastian Aho earning less than $10 million for the next eight years as an arguable top-10 center in the league is a steal. So too is goalie-of-the-future Pyotr Kochetkov at just $2 million for three more years.
Last season: 18th
The best way to describe Vancouver’s cap sheet is whatever is the opposite of “death by a thousand cuts.” The anti-Benning works too. It’s a sea of blue with just one single problem contract, which is Tyler Myers being paid $1 million too much. Big whoop.
To be fair, more than half of those blue deals are fair value within $500,000 of their cap hit. But for a franchise that spent a decade overpaying the wrong players, it’s a nice change of pace to see them correctly pay the right players.
That didn’t come without a price, though. The Canucks have the second most dead money on the books, which is a big reason the team didn’t land any higher. They had to clean up a lot of mistakes.
It is worth noting too that a season where everything went right for them helps a lot — especially for players whose contracts didn’t look quite as rosy just a year ago. J.T. Miller, Conor Garland and Brock Boeser can all attest to that and even Thatcher Demko didn’t look like a $5 million goalie in 2022-23.
Vancouver also has fewer “big” wins than some of the other teams ahead of them. Quinn Hughes obviously qualifies as one of the best contracts in the league, but even he’s only on three years of term. Jake DeBrusk currently projects as the best deal for the forwards (with the assumption he gets a spot on PP1 in Vancouver), though that pales in comparison to some of the deals that Florida or Edmonton boast.
Regardless, the Canucks’ cap sheet is the best it’s looked in ages and a top-five spot is a huge accomplishment given what their fans have gone through with previous regimes.
Last season: 11th
There’s a reason the Rangers won the Presidents’ Trophy and made it to the conference finals last season: their books are pretty damn clean. The Rangers have exactly one problem contract, belonging to their captain, which they’re actively trying to get rid of. But even Jacob Trouba’s deal isn’t a huge problem relative to what other teams have.
Mostly, the Rangers are getting fair value for a majority of their guys with two groups that serve as exceptions. The first group is Vincent Trocheck and Adam Fox: two guys with five years left who are way underpaid. Fox especially — it’s why he made the best contracts list. The other is Alexis Lafrenière, K’Andre Miller and Igor Shesterkin; three guys in line for major pay bumps after next season.
Between those five the Rangers are saving a lot of money for the upcoming season. But that won’t last long and there’s a good reason why the Rangers have been so active trying to get rid of the one poor contract they do have.
Last season: 9th (Arizona Coyotes)
On the surface, Utah’s cap sheet looks pretty nondescript for a team so close to the top five. It’s good, but seventh?
They have a plethora of noteworthy bargain deals and not many problem contracts to speak of. But they don’t have a home run deal — one worthy of being one of the league’s very best. Connor Ingram’s contract comes the closest considering how he’s performed over the last couple of seasons and even that only ranks 38th leaguewide.
So why does Utah land this high? That would be because they’re a team that manages to be in the playoff mix while carrying $20 million in cap space. That’s a big deal.
The other teams with a similar amount of cap space look a lot worse on paper (with a lot of value coming from ELCs) and that’s partly because the money they have spent hasn’t been spent wisely. Utah is a rare combination of a team with massive flexibility that can also put an effective product on the ice anyway. At least, they’re expected to next season.
Without $20 million in cap space burning a hole in its pockets, Utah would land a lot closer to average on this list. That’s its edge in these rankings.
Last season: 14th
Contract values aren’t stagnant and timing is everything. It’s a lot like the real market in that way and the Leafs bought the top on William Nylander.
He started the year as an $8.5 million player, peaked at an $11.5 million valuation and then settled in at $10 million when all was said and done. The problem was the Leafs signed him right at that peak and only a few months later were left with a deal that could prove difficult to live up to. Nylander has the ability to look like an $11.5 million player or better, it’s a matter of whether he can consistently be that year in and year out — and the model raises skepticism considering he doesn’t have a lengthy resume in that range.
Thankfully for Toronto, that’s offset (for the next four years anyway) by Auston Matthews’ extension, which is a bargain for what he is as an annual MVP contender. As one of the three best players on earth, he’s closer to a league-max player than one that will only command 15 percent of the cap.
The Leafs have some good deals and bad deals across the board like most teams, but the reason they rank so high is what they’ve done in net. Anthony Stolarz was the highest upside bet available in free agency and to get him at $2.5 million is great value. And if Joseph Woll is indeed the goalie of the future the franchise feels he is, a three-year extension at $3.66 million per is a bet well worth making. That could end up being a massive bargain if he ends up being the real deal. There’s risk there given his small sample and injury history, but Woll feels worth that risk.
The model projects a lot of upside in both those goalie plays — we’ll see if it pans out given the difficulty in predicting goaltending with any degree of accuracy. If not, Toronto’s cap picture comes in a lot closer to average.
Last season: 5th
Jack Hughes has the second-best contract in the league and Jesper Bratt’s deal looks pretty damn good too. Nico Hischier wouldn’t be far off with a bit more term, but either way, New Jersey’s top three forwards are all on bargain deals. That’s a huge head start for the team and powers their spot in the top 10.
The Devils did drop from last year, though, which is to be expected given their tumble down the standings. That’s felt most in the evaluations for the team’s other core pieces, Timo Meier and Dougie Hamilton. Both looked like positive value deals last season but came in on the negative side this year. A dramatic fall-off from Ondrej Palat and Jonas Siegenthaler doesn’t help matters, nor does a potentially onerous contract that was just handed out to Brenden Dillon.
Everything else is pretty fair and the Devils look a lot more set between the pipes too. There’s just a little less optimism all around given the disappointment of last season.
Last season: 12th
Having Wyatt Johnston and Logan Stankoven on ELCs is a terrific advantage. As are sweetheart deals to core players Miro Heiskanen, Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz. Whatever Thomas Harley signs for will probably be a steal too. Add Matt Duchene at 50 percent off and one more year of Jake Oettinger at a bargain bin rate and the Stars are in a really good place, well worthy of a top-10 spot.
The reason they’re not any higher has to do with the two albatross contracts still on the books, and the two questionable deals they added to it this summer. Tyler Seguin still has four years left on his deal and has one of the league’s worst contracts, and while Jamie Benn’s looks better and only has one year left, it’s still an issue for 2024-25. On top of that, neither Ilya Lyubushkin nor Matt Dumba looks equipped to be worth over $3 million for the next two years.
Last season: 17th
The freshly minted Quinton Byfield extension was so good it moved the Kings up six spots in these rankings. He may not be a $10 million player yet, but a rising cap for a 21-year-old showing star upside means he’s on track to get there — and then some.
Byfield’s deal gives the Kings four A-level deals and things look pretty good for them, especially up front. But there are some troubling spots, especially with some of the work they did this summer. Tanner Jeannot is an overpaid reclamation project, Darcy Kuemper is probably over the hill and Joel Edmundson’s deal would’ve only looked acceptable if it was $3.9 million total — not per year.
The Jeannot and Edmundson combination feels especially poor because together they cost about as much as Matt Roy did for nowhere near the same effectiveness.
Last season: 13th
The Jets have one of the best contracts in the league and also one of the worst. They mostly cancel out, but in the short term, there’s a big edge for Josh Morrissey’s deal and that colors a lot with regards to the Jets’ placement here. There may not be a ton of surplus value coming in from long-term deals, but in the short term, there’s a lot more good than bad. Combine that with Neal Pionk being the only other overpayment north of $1 million and Winnipeg’s books look pretty good going into next season.
Last season: 15th
The front half of Andrei Vasilevskiy’s deal went extremely well for the Lightning. The back half might not if last year was any indication. I’m inclined to believe his struggles were injury-related and he can get back on track, but if not … $9.5 million for four more years is a lot of money for a goalie who may no longer be a slam-dunk top-five choice.
The Lightning have two other problem deals in their core with Anthony Cirelli and Erik Cernak. Both are still effective players but their price points over seven years look a bit much.
However, the Lightning can afford that luxury thanks to some stellar deals from their top forwards. At $9.5 million, Nikita Kucherov is obviously vastly underpaid and so too is newly minted Jake Guentzel, who the model views as an eight-figure winger.
Both deals pale in comparison to Brandon Hagel’s $6.5 million AAV for eight years. There was some sticker shock when he signed, but Hagel is the real deal: an elite play-driver who scored 75 points last year with limited power-play time. If he starts getting reps on PP1, he’ll be an even bigger steal.
Last season: 7th
How will Vegas survive its mass exodus this summer? The strength of its defense — which collectively comes in at a relative bargain — is a start.
Noah Hanifin’s extension looks like it could be a steal with the model calculating it offers $2 million in savings annually. Hanifin is being paid a little more than someone like Brady Skjei or Brandon Montour but arguably has more substance as a do-it-all No. 1 defenseman who can perform well in tough minutes. He showed as much as soon as he got to Vegas and grades out as a borderline top-20 defender. Shea Theodore offers even more bang for his buck, but that deal expires this year.
Aside from Alex Pietrangelo, who is seeing some decline in the back half of his deal, every defender comes in at a big discount.
Vegas’ survival will also have to come from some internal growth up front. If Pavel Dorofeyev and Nicolas Roy’s efficiency in lesser roles can translate to bigger minutes, they project to bring in a lot of surplus value. The model is obviously out on a limb with both — time will tell if it was on to something.
Last season: 4th
The Bruins take a big year-to-year tumble, which is entirely the fault of their two big acquisitions in free agency: Elias Lindholm and Nikita Zadorov. Both players look like they can be strong fits for the Bruins and they definitely fit a need, but at present time their value doesn’t line up with their cap hits.
Lindholm is coming off a brutal year and that he was still able to command $7.75 million on a seven-year term is astounding. He should be better off paired with David Pastrnak, but it still feels incredibly pricey. Ditto for Zadorov, a career third-pair defenseman who may have the chops for something more, but is being paid for that promise (as a high-end No. 3) more than what he’s actually shown. He too should be better off paired with Charlie McAvoy, but the issue with both is paying so much to two players who probably aren’t drivers in their own right.
Having said that, the players they’ll likely be paired with more than help offset the cost of nabbing two players that should fit well. Elias Lindholm’s contract may be bad, but Pastrnak and Elias Lindholm for $19 million? That’s good value. The same thing goes for McAvoy and Zadorov combining for $14.5 million.
That same ideology can also help clean up Boston’s last sore spot, Joonas Korpisalo. Even at $3 million, he seems pricey barring a drastic turnaround with Boston. But pair that with whatever bargain Jeremy Swayman signs for and the Bruins will look just fine — even better than they’re currently ranked with another likely A-contract on the books.
Last season: 26th
Nick Suzuki — welcome to the realm of “good contracts” where you should have been all along.
Having him down as one of the worst contracts a couple of years ago looked wrong at the time and was a blight on the model, so it’s great to see that’s been rectified. That’s partly a result of adjustments to the model (age curve, context, contract valuation), but also of Suzuki proving he’s a legit No. 1 center. That was in question at the time, it’s not anymore.
Cole Caufield’s deal looks slightly better and that’s simply a matter of being one year younger and having one extra year of term. Juraj Slafkovsky has the potential to join the two if he takes an even bigger step after the one he showed last year.
Those three aren’t even the best deals on the books, though. That honor belongs to Sam Montembeault, who is signed at a paltry $3.2 million for three more years despite looking like a legit starter the last two years. The 27-year-old netminder is entering his peak and is coming off two seasons where he’s saved 35 goals above expected, a mark that ranks seventh in the league between Jeremy Swayman and Stuart Skinner. That’s worth a lot.
Things are looking up for the Canadiens, who have the most cap space in the league. They’ll look even better once the team’s problem contracts come off the books. Brendan Gallagher and Josh Anderson’s deals are particularly awful and have three years left. But deals for Joel Armia, Christian Dvorak and David Savard only have one year remaining. That’s $11.4 million to play with next season, which would give the Habs even more cap space to be a major player in free agency.
Last season: 10th
Apologies to fans of the annual worst contracts list, there was a player who slipped through the cracks: Josh Norris. His deal would’ve landed between Colton Parayko’s and Damon Severson’s with Norris having six years left and a projected value half of his cap hit. Ouch. It’s possible he will bounce back with better health, but his trajectory looks a lot less rosy compared to when he signed.
Norris’ deal is unfortunate because the Senators have a lot of good going for themselves otherwise. Jake Sanderson has one of the best deals in hockey while both Tim Stützle and Brady Tkachuk look like long-term bargains as well. Ottawa is saving big bucks on the three key members of its core and that goes a long way — even if the Norris deal does put a damper on things.
There are a few other sore spots on the books that bring Ottawa down as well — namely Nick Jensen and Thomas Chabot — but for the most part, the Senators look like they’re in decent shape. Especially long-term.
Last season: 19th
Cap space is only as good as how a team uses it and it’s a bit perplexing that the Sabres, a team with playoff aspirations, are going to enter the season with so much of it. It’s even more perplexing when they wasted a lot of it on a short-sighted Jeff Skinner buyout that will likely add more pain to the books at a time when the team will need it most.
What the Sabres have going for them is that most of their problems are short-term ones. All of Jordan Greenway, Sam Lafferty, Jason Zucker, Bowen Byram, Henri Jokiharju and Connor Clifton are arguably overpaid by $1 million or more. But except for Clifton, who has two years left, their deals all expire next year.
Buffalo’s two cornerstone players, Tage Thompson and Rasmus Dahlin, both look like tremendous value contracts, which helps offset the plethora of overpayments as well. Both Dylan Cozens and Owen Power aren’t far off and have a chance to get back on track after a down year.
With a locked-up core and four key players on ELCs, Buffalo’s long-term outlook looks strong, but the Sabres do have some issues in the short term that keep them from the league’s upper half.
Last season: 6th
The Wild are almost free from the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts. That’s the good news as the $21.4 million in dead money hurts Minnesota’s standing a lot here. The bad news is how the team has allocated some of those future dollars with a quartet of poor four-year deals.
Marcus Foligno and Yakov Trenin are both paid to be capable third-line players, but neither looks to have the offensive chops to be that anymore. Frederick Gaudreau looks mostly replaceable and is getting more than that. Jake Middleton is being paid to be a capable second-pairing option, but he looks more like a player who’s being carried by Minnesota’s good defensemen.
Minnesota has three excellent forward contracts that offset much of that damage with Matt Boldy’s landing on the best contracts list and Joel Eriksson Ek’s coming close as well. It’s just not enough to surpass the teams ahead — not with that much dead money on the books.
Last season: 20th
The Flames have a lot of cap space and a fairly clean cap sheet that looks pretty strong throughout. MacKenzie Weegar’s deal is the star of the show leading a relatively underpaid defense. Up front, almost everyone is pretty close to fairly paid too.
Almost everyone.
There is of course the matter of the Jonathan Huberdeau deal, our pick for the league’s worst contract. It’s hard to get into the league’s top half with a deal that’s bloated by almost $40 million and Huberdeau’s deal is so bad that it actually keeps Calgary out of the top 10.
We all hope that Huberdeau’s game rehabilitates and he goes on a revenge tour next season, but for now, it’s an obvious albatross.
21. Nashville Predators
Last season: 16th
If not for a massive pile of dead money, the Predators would’ve ranked a lot higher. The Roman Josi and Filip Forsberg deals look exceptional and there’s a lot more good than bad on their books.
Last year’s free agent acquisitions, Ryan O’Reilly and Gustav Nyquist, grading out so well gives reason to suspect that this year’s big splashes can look better under Andrew Brunette as well. Steven Stamkos looks to be the only real overpay, but his name-brand value is probably worth the extra million.
All of that is borne out of necessity, though, given how much money the Predators can’t spend. Their $27.7 million in dead money is by far the most in the league and is the difference between Nashville landing here instead of 14th.
Last season: 22nd
The Penguins don’t have a lot of long-term commitments on the books, but the ones they do have lean toward the negative side. Rickard Rakell, Kris Letang, Ryan Graves and Tristan Jarry are all here for four or more years and while none are gross overpayments to the degree of other teams below — it’s not ideal that Pittsburgh’s longest deals skew this way. Bryan Rust’s deal is greater than any of those are bad, but it’s not enough to offset things.
The rest of the cap sheet consists of short deals that don’t move the needle too much in any direction, but they’re strong enough to give Pittsburgh positive value in the short term. That creates a sizeable gap between the Penguins and the 10 teams below but leaves them at the bottom of the league’s middle class.
Last season: 27th
Including goalie deals helps the Islanders’ standing a fair bit here. The Ilya Sorokin contract is arguably their best one with the model projecting he can still be a franchise-level goalie despite last season’s turbulence.
Aside from Sorokin, there isn’t enough good elsewhere to lift the Islanders. The Anthony Duclair deal looks nice and Noah Dobson should be a huge bargain for at least one more year. Most of the team’s other wins are modest, though, especially compared to some of the anchors. Casey Cizikas, Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Anders Lee don’t have a lot of term left, but they’re collectively being paid $6.5 million too much. Bo Horvat’s yearly deficit isn’t nearly as bad, but it does add up over seven years.
The bigger issue is on defense where both Ryan Pulock and Scott Mayfield are signed for six more years at a cap hit that already looks a little steeper than their worth.
Last season: 23rd
A lot can change with where the Red Wings land depending on how much they sign Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider for. On max-term deals anything below $8.5 million for Lucas Raymond and $7.8 million for Seider would be seen as wins according to the model.
Those deals would need to be major wins, though, to make up for a lot of the damage done to Detroit’s cap sheet via free agency. Neither J.T. Compher nor Andrew Copp are delivering to the standard they’re being paid for and things may be even worse on defense. Justin Holl has become a regular scratch and Ben Chiarot delivers closer to replacement-level results than the $4.8 million he’s earning. In net, Ville Husso might be the team’s third goalie and is the most expensive one at $4.8 million himself.
Term isn’t too big of a factor with those deals so the problems don’t compound enough to land the Red Wings lower, but the team doesn’t have a lot of good-value contracts to save them either. Both Patrick Kane and Erik Gustafsson should deliver surplus value, but that’s mostly it.
Last season: 24th
The Flyers have three great-looking deals on prime-aged players, the problem is they all expire next year. Travis Konecny, Morgan Frost and Cam York are all playing roughly $3 million under their worth and while that gives great value for next year, their next contracts will dictate where the Flyers land next season. They could all sign perfect deals like Owen Tippett’s or Joel Farabee’s, get good value like Nick Seeler’s or slightly overpay like Travis Sanheim’s.
Across the board, there isn’t much to complain about aside from a heap of dead money on the books over the next two years. That does drag the Flyers down, but Philadelphia’s biggest problem contract is one any knowledgeable person would’ve given out at the time. Sean Couturier landed on our worst contracts list as a result of injuries derailing his value, and it’s his deal that brings the Flyers down to 25th. They wouldn’t be an above-average team regardless, but they wouldn’t be this low either.
Last season: 21st
The Kraken should probably stay away from free agency at this point. Philipp Grubauer, Jaden Schwartz and Andre Burakovsky all don’t look great. And now you can add Brandon Montour and especially Chandler Stephenson to that list. Good thing Seattle has a no-income tax advantage … right?
On the positive end of the spectrum, Jared McCann and Vince Dunn’s extensions are aging well and Joey Daccord looks good enough to make up for Grubauer’s negative value. There’s just not enough elsewhere to make up for a lot of problems on the books. Maybe new coach Dan Bylsma can help get more out of the group, but for now, it doesn’t look pretty.
Last season: 32nd
The Blackhawks have the best asset in hockey — Connor Bedard on an ELC — though that’s not accounted for here. What is accounted for is what they’ve surrounded Bedard with and while things are better after this offseason, Chicago still has a ways to go.
Teuvo Teravainen and Tyler Bertuzzi were the team’s big gets this summer and both grade out well, though that’s partly a result of getting offensive opportunities in Chicago they might not get elsewhere. The same is true for Laurent Brossoit, who has a good shot of stealing the starting job here.
Those three are enough to get the team out of the contract efficiency basement, but there’s still a lot of flotsam from the past year dragging the team down. Jason Dickinson, Andreas Athanasiou, Nick Foligno, Connor Murphy and Petr Mrazek all earning north of $4 million isn’t going to bode well for an article about spending money wisely.
What does bode well, though, is Alex Vlasic’s deal. The Blackhawks made a savvy bet early on his potential and it should pay off with one of the league’s best contracts as he further entrenches himself as a true top-pair defender.
It’s a deal that helps make up for Chicago overspending on Seth Jones. As long as you think about Vlasic and Jones at a combined $14.1 million, things don’t look so bad on that front.
28. Washington Capitals
Last season: 25th
Most of what Washington has on the books is fine. Of the 22 deals listed here, 15 are within $1.5 million of their projected value. Not bad, not good — just fine. It’s a perfect embodiment of the current state of this team. Mid.
The Capitals do have some nice deals, especially Dylan Strome’s, but they also have a few too many problem contracts from legacy players that drag them way down the list. T.J. Oshie and Alex Ovechkin aren’t as good as they were when they signed those deals, but at least their deals are up soon. The same can’t be said for Tom Wilson, who has seven years to prove he can age better than Milan Lucic.
Adding to that was Washington’s acquisition of Pierre-Luc Dubois, a high-risk bet that could pan out, but currently grades out as one of the league’s worst contracts. Getting value out of that deal will hinge on Dubois playing like a top-line center again, which may be hard to envision after how he played last season. The model expects a bounce-back with a larger role (which is what kept him off the worst contracts list), but even with that in mind, it’s difficult to like his deal until he proves he’s still got game.
Last season: 31st
The Ducks have a whole lot of cap space, no dead money and a quintet of exciting players on ELCs. That’s the good, along with Troy Terry coming in at a slight discount.
The bad is almost everything else … for now. There’s a light at the end of the tunnel for Anaheim and that’s most of the team’s losses coming off the books soon. Alex Killorn, Ryan Strome, Cam Fowler and John Gibson are the team’s biggest financial headaches and they all have only three years or less left. That likely lines up perfectly with Anaheim’s ascent back up the standings with its promising young core.
The Ducks don’t have a lot of contract wins on the books but their patience should be rewarded.
Last season: 29th
At the very least, the Blues are getting some good deals on their top three forwards — especially Robert Thomas, who is expected to grow into a $10 million center.
But a lot of that good work is undone by St. Louis’ quartet of $6.5 million men. All four of Brayden Schenn, Justin Faulk, Torey Krug and Colton Parayko were once worth that exact amount, but the age curve got the best of them. The Blues crumbling around them hasn’t helped.
Parayko, who landed on the league’s worst contracts list, is the biggest issue here mostly because of term. Six years is a long time for a 31-year-old defenseman who is already struggling to offer the offense necessary to live up to a $6.5 million ticket.
There are some other small issues that don’t help, but it’s those four that are the main reason for concern in St. Louis. If Krug ends up missing the entire 2024-25 season due to injury, the Blues would jump to 27th.
Last season: 28th
Being the league’s worst team last season means there are a lot of players not living up to the money. That shows on defense with Marc-Edouard Vlasic obviously headlining the team’s list of bad deals, but also with Mario Ferraro and Jan Rutta, who both struggled last season. Ditto up front with Nico Sturm, Luke Kunin and Mikael Granlund. Logan Couture too, though he didn’t play much last year.
The Sharks added new wounds on top of that this summer with Alex Wennberg and Barclay Goodrow, but that’s balanced out to an extent with the savvy Jake Walman acquisition.
It’s not all bad in San Jose. Fabian Zetterlund and especially Ty Emberson showed promise amidst the wasteland last year relative to their deals. But overall it’s a lot of bad money, exactly as expected. Having $21 million of dead money on the books, the fourth most in the league, doesn’t help matters, either.
Last season: 30th
It’s never a good thing to be below the current iteration of the Sharks, but the Blue Jackets have been masters in the art of spending money poorly.
At each position, Columbus has a big problem for a lot of years. In net, Elvis Merzlikins isn’t quite the capable starter he’s paid to be. On the blue line, Damon Severson isn’t the top-pair defenseman he’s paid to be. And up front, Johnny Gaudreau isn’t the franchise star he’s paid to be. All three are off the pace by a lot of money.
Gaudreau aging this poorly is the most disappointing aspect of Columbus’ cap picture considering how good he was before getting there. The drop-off was unexpectedly dramatic and while there’s hope for a bounce-back, things look grim at the moment.
Those aren’t the only problems here. Erik Gudbranson’s deal was indefensible the minute it was signed and this year’s Sean Monahan deal probably won’t end well either.
At the very least, it’s nice to see Zach Werenski’s deal start to look more palatable considering it looked difficult to live up to at the time. But if we’re calling a $1 million overpay “nice,” that’s a testament to how ugly everything else looks.
New GM Don Waddell has a lot of work to do.
— Data via CapFriendly, CapWages and Evolving Hockey
(Photo of Matthew Tkachuk and Connor McDavid: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
