Twelve of 31 municipalities and unincorporate areas in the Phoenix Metro area saw a double-digit surge in the year-over-year rate of home sales in 2025, but sales in Mesa rose far more modestly.
Data compiled by The Cromford Report, one of the leading analysts of the Valley’s housing market, show that the total 4,708 single-family home sales in Mesa last year represented only a 1.4% increase over the 2024 total.
That rate of increase wasn’t much higher than Phoenix, which ranked last among the 31 Valley communities that saw year-over-year sales rise, according to The Cromford Report. Mesa ranked third to last in that list.
Phoenix saw 9,990 homes sold last year, but that total represented only a .8% increase over the total sold in 2024, according to The Cromford Report.
Another 11 included in Cromford’s analysis showed total home sales fell last year over 2024 anywhere from .4% in Laveen to a whopping 29.9% in Tolleson.
Paradise Valley saw the largest increase in sales during that period with 25.5%, 0r 330 homes.
It was followed by Goodyear (25% with 2,100 houses), Tonopah (24.6%, with 147 homes), Waddell (24.1% with 437) and Florence (21.9 %, with 796).
At the other end of the list of 41 Valley communities was Tolleson, where the 469 homes that sold last year represented a 29.9% year-over-year drop.
Casa Grande’s 988 sales were down 20.8% from last year, garnering second-last place in the list of 41 municipalities.
The 74 homes that sold in Carefree put that coming in third-last place with a 15.9% decline from 2023 while Litchfield Park (8.3% with 611 homes) and Maricopa (7.9% with 1,773 homes) were the fourth-lowest and fifth-lowest in year-over-year sales.)
“No surprise that Paradise Valley is at the top, but I wonder why Tolleson is at the bottom,” The Cromford Report’s anonymous commentator remarked, asking that if anyone knew why to contact them.
Meanwhile, of the 18 Valley communities that The Cromford Report monitors closely for pricing, only one – Paradise Valley – saw a slight decline as a seller’s market.
The other 17 showed that they increased in favorability for sellers, with Fountain Hills at the top of the list.
It was followed, in order, by Chandler, Gilbert, Scottsdale and Cave Creek as the submarkets most favorable for sellers.
Phoenix ranked sixth on the list – followed in order by Tempe, Mesa, Glendale and Paradise Valley – among the 10 Valley cities where sellers have the biggest advantage at the bargaining table.
“Christmas has brought a nice present for sellers across Greater Phoenix apart from those in Paradise Valley,” The Cromford Report said.
“The Cromford Market Index has moved higher in 17 out of 18 cities and in 12 of them by more than 10%,” it noted.
“The causes are twofold. Supply has declined more than usual between November and December and demand has recovered a little momentum, though it is still a long way below normal.”
It added, “Peoria and Gilbert take the prizes for the strongest moves over the last month, with Queen Creek, Tempe, Glendale and Goodyear not far behind.
“The massive Phoenix market also moved higher by 14%, which is important for the overall numbers as Phoenix represents 25% of the total market.”
The Cromford Report’s analysis of year-over-year sales keyed on Apache Junction, which landed on the eighth highest change in sales.
There, the 708 single-family and mobile home sales combined represented a 14.9% increase over a two-year period.
“Not only has the annual sales rate increased substantially since May 2023, it is within a whisker of hitting the highest ever. The previous record holder is September 2021.
“This trend works for single-family detached homes and for mobile homes in Apache Junction,” it said.
“Condos and townhomes are not looking so great, but then only about 5% of Apache Junction homes are condos or townhomes. There are plenty of mobile homes however. They represent some 35 to 40% of sales.”
Overall, it added, townhome and condo sales saw “new lows being reached” in the Valley as a whole.
It said total Valley-wide sales of condos and townhomes saw “new lows being reached” last year and hit their lowest total since 2009.
“Over the past several years it has become harder to buy and sell condos and townhomes for a number of reasons not confined ot Arizona,” The Cromford Report said.
It cited three primary factors for that decline.
One involved the difficulty ins ecuring finance for their purchase, as most lending institutions demand 15% to 20% downpayments for attached properties. Additionally, it said, “Insurance costs have often risen dramatically for attached properties and some HOAs have had to take out less-complete coverage.”
The other two factors include shifts in demand trends, as “favored properties (are those) with more privacy and space over densley packed urban environments.”
It also noted. “Some HOA costs for condos and townhouses have been rising faster than inflation.”
Added to those three factors, according to The Cromford Report, is another unwelcome surprise:
“Although the sticker prices for condos and townhouses are usually lower than for single-family homes, there are sometimes nasty surprises when a buyer looks at the monthly payments, including insurance, HOA fees, assesments, etc.”
