Hispanic Americans helped deliver a historic blow to the GOP in Tuesday’s contest, diminishing gains President Trump made with Latino men while augmenting the ranks of Democrats in the Congressional Hispanic Caucus (CHC).
Exit polling data from polling firm BSP showed significant attrition among Latinos who backed Trump in 2024 — 17 percent of those who backed the president in the last election cycle supported the Democratic ticket during the midterms.
Meanwhile, a record-breaking number of Latinos voted this week, including newer, younger voters who more consistently backed the Democratic ticket. BSP found that among Latinos casting a ballot, 17 percent were first-time federal election voters, while 41 percent had joined the electorate since the 2022 cycle.
“While the numbers are still coming in, what we know so far indicates that this will undoubtedly be the largest turnout of Latino voters ever in a midterm election,” Janet Murguía, president and CEO of Unidos US, said on a call with reporters.
“It’s estimated that as many as 14.5 million Hispanics went to the polls, and I can’t help but reflect on the fact that President Trump asked voters across the country to pretend like he was on the ballot, and our observation is that Latino voters did just that by resoundingly rejecting his extreme policies and actions and anyone who rubber-stamped them.”
The group’s voting power was seen not just in how it voted but in who is ascending to public office.
The Congressional Hispanic Caucus — the group of Democratic Latino lawmakers serving in Congress — said its membership will swell to 56 members just in time for its 50th anniversary.
“This is an exciting year to see that our ranks are growing in that manner,” outgoing CHC Chair Adriano Espaillat (D-N.Y.) told The Hill, going on to note that many of the mid-decade redistricting efforts driven by the GOP threatened seats held by Latino members.
“We felt that because of the stuff that went on with the Republicans and redistricting, that we may lose seats, and it was sort of the other way around. We gained them, or we overperformed.”
In some cases, new members flipped seats held by Hispanic Republicans or even ousted Democratic Hispanic incumbents. Others have won seats not previously held by Latinos.
In total the caucus has 16 new members, expanding its size by 12 lawmakers.
Latinos voters were also key in delivering Democratic victories in GOP strongholds like Texas, which Trump carried decisively in 2024 but now has a blue senator and elected Gina Hinojosa (D) to serve as the state’s first Latina governor.
Data from The Associated Press found roughly 7 in 10 Hispanic voters supported Texas Democrat James Talarico in the U.S. Senate contest, while only about 3 in 10 voted for Republican Ken Paxton. When Trump was on the ballot last cycle, Texas Latinos had evenly split their support in the presidential race.
Polling also shows that Latino voters, like many others casting ballots Tuesday, were motivated by concerns over the high cost of living.
Gary Segura, president at polling firm BSP, said data showed that just 15 percent of Hispanics they polled described their financial situation as “comfortable” and just a third said they have “some left over” after paying bills.
“Half of the Latino population have nothing left over after they pay their bills, or in fact might even be struggling to make their bills each month, and more than 4 in 10 expect that the continuation of Trump economic policies would make them worse off in the next year,” he told reporters.
Other data analyzed by his firm showed just how alienated Latinos have become with the GOP.
Sixty-four percent of those polled said they had an unfavorable opinion about Trump and were broadly negative about the GOP.
“Nearly two-thirds say Democrats care a great deal about the Latino community, while about 7 in 10 say Republicans don’t care or are actively hostile,” Segura said.
There’s no doubt immigration played a significant role in shaping Latino attitudes heading into the election.
“For a long time, I believe that immigration was sort of like a taboo issue,” Espaillat said, arguing that many Democrats felt there was little change of passing immigration reform.
“Once ICE [Immigration and Customs Enforcement] came in and did what they’re doing, it was pretty much in everybody’s view what was happening. And I think that the aggressiveness of ICE, the detentions, the deportations, the killings, and the whole really traumatic experience that the country has lived through with ICE on the streets of our nation had a dramatic impact on Latino voters coming out.”
Segura’s data confirms that.
“Latino voters overwhelmingly want an immigration system that includes a path to citizenship,” he said.
Seventy-six percent of those polled said they want ICE reforms, while 68 percent “want that blank check written to ICE pulled back.”
Several Latinos have been among those shot and killed by immigration officers within the first two years of Trump’s second term, including the deaths of Johan Sebastian Guerrero in Maine and Lorenzo Salgado Araujo in Texas. Marimar Martinez, who lived after being shot at five times by an officer in Illinois, has spoken out about aggressive immigration enforcement.
More than 60 people have also died in immigration detention since Trump took office.
Murguía said for many Latino voters, the issue is one they’ve experienced within their own circles.
“Many of the folks I talked to had stories about the run-ins they, their family members, neighbors, even those who are citizens have had with immigration enforcement officers. They also told me about the toll that mass deportation was taking on businesses and neighborhoods definitely having a negative economic impact,” she said.
But experts caution that Latinos want nuance in border and immigration policy, a factor that helped Trump gain some support with the group in 2024.
Segura posed a vision he said had broad appeal.
“We read the following policy … ‘We need a balanced and orderly immigration system that has an earned path to citizenship for long-term residents, focuses enforcement inside the country on keeping communities safe with clear accountability, offers legal ways to immigrate that help economy and families and keeps the border secure.’ Ninety percent of Latinos agree with that,” he said.
Latino leaders have long argued neither party should take its voters for granted, arguing Hispanics are heavily motivated by issues.
Murguía said the midterms also spurred some of the highest levels of outreach to Latino voters.
“We hope both parties will take away the lesson that outreach matters,” she said.
“We believe that the results in 2024 and now 2026 will finally convince elected officials and the political establishment that Latinos are indeed a swing vote.”
