Former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has a strong chance of winning the New York mayor primary, latest betting odds show.
Cuomo’s odds of success stand at 82 percent while his nearest rival, Zohran Mamdani, is on 19 percent, according to Polymarket, at the time of publishing.
Why It Matters
Cuomo is standing in the primaries for New York City mayor, returning to public life after he resigned as New York Governor in 2021 amid the threat of impeachment over sexual misconduct allegations. Cuomo has always denied the accusations and no charges were ever brought against him.
Whoever wins the Democratic primary will likely win the race, as New York City is reliably Democratic.
AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura, Pool
The election uses ranked-choice ballots, meaning voters select up to five candidates in order of preference.
What To Know
On Wednesday, nine Democratic candidates faced off in a two-hour debate. The latest odds measure how prospective voters responded to the debate.
They show that Cuomo had a slight dip from his 84 percent odds of victory before the debate, but that overall the debate didn’t affect voting behavior to a large extent.
Polls have shown Cuomo has a strong lead in the run up to the election. A May Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill survey of 1,000 registered voters, found that 35 percent backed Cuomo on the first round of the ranked-choice ballot, while Mamdani was favored by 23 percent.
According to a Marist Poll conducted between May 1 and 8 among 3,383 likely Democratic primary voters, Cuomo was the first choice of 37 percent of respondents, including those who were undecided but leaning toward a candidate.
What People Are Saying
William F. Hall, an adjunct professor of political science and business at Webster University in St. Louis, Missouri told Newsweek: “Several important factors, including the huge name recognition advantage and extensive political experience, coupled with the significant challenges that any Muslim candidate would face, including Mamdani as a Muslim American running for public office in a major American city populated with an extensive Jewish constituency and heavily sympathetic Jewish leaning political environment, the odds for his chances for success in the New York City Mayoral race, would appear to be extremely daunting and highly unlikely.
“Despite several of Cuomo’s negative issues that have blemished his career, on balance, there nonetheless still does appear to be a strong viable window for victory for Cuomo, because of the many positive successes he achieved while in public office in the past and especially, in light of the current difficulties experienced in the New York City’s Mayors office, under the incumbent.”
Cuomo during the debate: “I know how to deal with Donald Trump because I’ve dealt with him before. We fought on a daily basis through COVID. And I won many of those battles … So he can be beaten, but he has to know that he’s up against an adversary who can actually beat him.”
Queens assemblyman and democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani, during the debate: “The difference between myself and Andrew Cuomo is that my campaign is not funded by the very billionaires who put Donald Trump in D.C.”
What Happens Next
The Democratic primary takes place on 24 June. The general mayoral election takes place on 4 November.
Meanwhile, Cuomo is facing another legal issue as House Oversight Chair James Comer requested that the Department of Justice (DOJ) investigate and potentially prosecute him for allegedly lying to Congress about New York State’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic in nursing homes.
Cuomo’s spokesperson Rich Azzopardi told Politico the claims were “nonsense,” adding: “As the DOJ constantly reminds people, this kind of transparent attempt at election interference and lawfare violates their own policies.”
