Yesterday I wrote about the competition for a roster spot among the Avalanche’s prospects. It’s not a challenge for top six ice time up front or 18+ minutes on defense.
It’s mid-level prospects — mostly overaged — fighting for an opportunity to gain the coach’s trust as a depth forward. It’s guys like Zakhar Bardakov, now 24 years old, who was an overage seventh round selection by the New Jersey Devils four years ago. It’s undersized forwards like Gavin Brindley and Danil Gushchin, both of whom were acquired from other franchises this offseason. It’s Ivan Ivan, Nikita Prishchepov, and maybe even Taylor Makar.
But none of those names are likely to blow the doors off. They’re not highly touted prospects around the league with overhyped potential to be top point producers. But, aside from Mikhail Gulyayev and Ilya Nabokov (both playing in the KHL), they’re the best the Avs have.
Daily Faceoff’s Steven Ellis recently released his prospect rankings, and he has the Avalanche ranked 29th out of 32 teams. The Athletic’s Corey Pronman has them in a similar position.
Such is usually the case with teams that are at the peak of their Stanley Cup contending window. For just about a decade, Colorado always had one of the best prospect pools. In the 2010s, the team was waiting on Mikko Rantanen or Cale Makar’s arrivals. They had Alex Newhook, Bowen Byram, Tyson Jost, and others coming up through the system.
But the talent on the ice was lacking. They were often missing the playoffs, hovering around the middle-of-the-pack, while juggling a rebuild with a team that can’t get over the hump and qualify for the playoffs.
But then Rantanen arrived. Makar followed a couple of years behind. And then Jost, Newhook, and Byram all entered the league and were eventually traded away.
The Avalanche’s pipeline could be an issue in a few years, or even as early as 2027. But right now, it makes sense for them to be ranked where they are, given their window to win. Top prospects like Calum Ritchie became trade bait, and first-round picks are being sent out the door regularly.
At some point, they need players to develop through the system. They need a third, fourth, or fifth round draft pick to become an NHL regular if they want to extend their Cup window with this core.
They need to hit on their high picks, whether they’re taken late in the first round like Gulyayev or early in the second or third rounds like Nabokov and Francesco Dell’Elce.
This year might be a pivotal season for some of the prospects I listed above. Some of the guys fighting for ice time if or when injuries arise to the main roster. We might even get a look at Sean Behrens at some point this year. Gulyayev could make the jump in April and, if the Avalanche solidify their playoff spot, he could get into a game or two before the playoffs begin.
But if the Avalanche plan on rising up these rankings, even if it’s to the middle of the pack, they’ll need some of those later round picks to hit. They’ll need to balance trading draft picks to win now with making worthy selections to improve the future of the team. They have their core, but the guys around the core are eventually going to be interchangeable.
Having prospects develop into those roles is the most efficient way to build a winner.
