Ladies and gentlemen, we may be on a hot streak. For the second week in a row, I nailed four of my five locks of the week, allowing us to rocket well above .500 on the season (28-22 ATS) with those picks and owning an 8-2 ATS record over that stretch. It comes within a Week 10 slate that we had dialed up quite well.
Not only was I 4-1 ATS within my featured picks, but two of them proved to be straight-up wins for road underdogs (Patriots and Eagles). My lone loss from Week 10 was backing Buffalo in Miami, which was the biggest upset of the entire slate. For the week overall, I want 8-6 ATS and 11-3 straight up. Not too shabby.
Of course, I’ve probably jinxed myself with this virtual pat on the back, but we’ll look to keep the good times rolling as we look forward to Week 11, beginning with my five locks.
Teams on bye in Week 11: Indianapolis and New Orleans.
NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Bet NFL at FanDuel and get $150 in bonus bets with a winning $5 wager.
2025 record
Locks of the Week ATS: 28-22-0
ATS: 69-80-0
ML: 94-54-1
- Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC | Fubo, try for free)
Philadelphia is befuddling. On the one hand, the Eagles are 7-2 and atop the NFC as the projected No. 1 seed entering Week 11. On the other hand, however, they are still clunky on offense and are coming off an ugly win over Green Bay. Saquon Barkley (3.9 yards per carry in 2025) hasn’t been as efficient as he was a year ago, and the Lions are a solid run defense, which could continue to slow down the Eagles offense.
Defensively, Philly was able to shut the Packers down. While I do think the addition of pass rusher Jaelan Phillips will be big for them down the stretch, I have questions about whether or not it’ll be enough in this matchup vs. Detroit. After all, the Packers were still finding their way without Tucker Kraft in the fold, and also didn’t have first-round rookie receiver Matthew Golden either. The Lions present far more players to account for at the skill positions, including Jahmyr Gibbs.
Backing the Lions in prime time is always a good way to lean as they are 13-2 straight up over the last four seasons when under the prime-time lights. Detroit is also 12-6 ATS as an underdog over the last four seasons.
Projected score: Lions 27, Eagles 24
The pick: Lions +2.5
I don’t like the spot here for Miami, and that’s the primary driver in picking Washington here. The Dolphins are coming off their biggest win of the season on Sunday as they upset the Buffalo Bills at Hard Rock Stadium. While that was an impressive victory, this is still one of the worst teams in the NFL and could be due for a letdown, particularly as they head internationally to Spain for this matchup. It’s hard to imagine they’ll play with the same vigor.
As for the Commanders, they’ll again be without Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin, but I think Marcus Mariota is a backup quarterback capable of leading his team to an upset win, particularly against a defense that is giving up 25.6 points per game (ninth-highest in the NFL) and is tied for the fourth-highest yards per play allowed (5.9). I’m also curious to see if Dan Quinn taking over play-calling duties on defense will spark that side of the ball.
It’s also worth noting that the Dolphins are 1-5 straight up and against the spread in their last six games following a win.
Projected score: Commanders 24, Dolphins 21
The pick: Commanders +2.5
Pete Prisco’s Week 11 NFL picks: Seahawks upset Rams in NFC West showdown; Chiefs get a must-win vs. Broncos
Pete Prisco
- Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox | Fubo, try for free)
I don’t think I’ve been as excited for a game this season as I am for Seahawks-Rams on Sunday. It feels like a potential NFC Championship preview between two rivals, who are both 7-2 and knotted atop the NFC West. Both Matthew Stafford and Sam Darnold are playing at an MVP level, and each club boasts stout defenses, so this is truly a heavyweight battle.
But there can only be one winner, and I’m planting my flag with Seattle. I certainly love taking them with the points, slipping a field goal in my pocket in a game where the margin is razor-thin. That said, I also like them to pull off the upset. The Seahawks have shown us this season that road environments don’t faze them, coming into Week 11 with a perfect 4-0 ATS and SU road record. They are also extremely balanced on both sides of the ball when they have their foot on the gas. Seattle has the best points per game differential (+14.2) in the first three quarters since the 2007 New England Patriots.
Projected score: Seahawks 24, Rams 21
The pick: Seahawks +3
Each of these clubs is coming off losses in Week 10, but Buffalo’s was more dire. After losing to the Dolphins, they’ve fallen further behind in the division standings, while the Bucs still are in first place in the NFC South and have been missing key figures on offense. I think Buffalo will throw the kitchen sink at this matchup to right the ship at home, but it’ll be close, and I expect Tampa Bay to keep it within the number. That is largely due to the looming return of Bucky Irving. If he suits up, it’s a great spot for him to burst back onto the scene. The Bills are giving up 5.5 yards per rush this season, which is tied for the league high. If the Bucs can dominate on the ground, it’ll keep them within range.
Tampa Bay is also 2-0 following a loss this season, and Baker Mayfield is 17-8 ATS as an underdog since joining the Buccaneers in 2023.
Projected score: Bills 27, Buccaneers 23
The pick: Buccaneers +5.5
- Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
The Patriots are the hottest team in the NFL and are showing no signs of slowing down. The oddsmakers believe they’ll continue to roll as they are a two-score favorite at home against the Jets on Thursday night. New York is coming off an upset win over the Browns, where they posted 27 points in the winning effort. However, that point total is a bit misleading, scoring 14 of those points in the return game. Justin Fields logged just 11 pass attempts in Week 10, so they are still very limited through the air.
The Jets best area to attack offensively has been on the ground, but that plays directly into New England’s hands. The Patriots are allowing just 79.2 yards rushing per game this season, which is the lowest in the NFL.
The big question is whether the Patriots and clear this number and win by two touchdowns, which I believe they will as they lay it on thick by posting a lofty point total in prime time. New England is 7-3 ATS this season, which includes a 6-1 ATS mark over this current winning streak.
Projected score: Patriots 30, Jets 16
The pick: Patriots -12.5
Rest of the bunch
Panthers at Falcons
Projected score: Panthers 23, Falcons 21
The pick: Panthers +3.5
Bears at Vikings
Projected score: Vikings 24, Bears 20
The pick: Vikings -3
Bengals at Steelers
Projected score: Steelers 30, Bengals 27
The pick: Bengals +5.5
Packers at Giants
Projected score: Packers 27, Giants 17
The pick: Packers -7.5
Texans at Titans
Projected score: Texans 24, Titans 14
The pick: Texans -7
Chargers at Jaguars
Projected score: Chargers 24, Jaguars 20
The pick: Chargers -3
49ers at Cardinals
Projected score: Cardinals 24, 49ers 23
The pick: Cardinals +2.5
Ravens at Browns
Projected score: Ravens 28, Browns 17
The pick: Ravens -8.5
Chiefs at Broncos
Projected score: Chiefs 24, Broncos 20
The pick: Chiefs -3.5
Cowboys at Raiders (Monday)
Projected score: Cowboys 28, Raiders 24
The pick: Cowboys -3.5
