In his first four professional seasons, Emmanuel Rodriguez has performed well, with elite plate discipline, an inevitably strong OBP, and an average quality of contact that can produce decent power and a passable batting average. Where scouts and prospect rankers seem to differ the most is how his plate approach will translate as he moves up and eventually reaches the big leagues.
His astonishingly low swing rate is a double-edged sword: his chase rate is low, but the lack of aggression can get him behind in counts. He’s been limited by an extremely high swing-and-miss rate and a strikeout rate that flirts with 30%. If he can stay healthy, which is turning into a bit of a concern, he’s a guy whose ceiling could be around 30 home runs with an OBP approaching .400. Think rookie Eddy Julien with a little more pop and a lot more defense. I chuckled while listening to episode 107 of the Future Projection podcast by Baseball America, wherein they suggested that a negative correlation exists between fans of Luis Arraez and Rodriguez, given their very different profiles.
Staying on the theme of player comps, let’s expand our player pool beyond the Twins organization. Which players compare to the wide range of outcomes that are possible for Rodriguez?
Out Of This Universe Comp – Juan Soto
What’s to say that, if the stars align and fortune smiles down on the Twins organization, Rodriguez can’t become Juan Soto? Okay, sure, there’s a lot that says he won’t, but I’m talkin’ 99th-percentile outcome here. All he needs to do is cut his strikeout rate in half, which in turn leads to a boost in batting average, and voilà—we have our very own Soto. (We’ll all try hard not to think about the fact that Soto had 328 hits, 228 walks, and a World Series ring in the majors by Rodriguez’s current age.)
Ceiling Comp – Kyle Schwarber
A much more reasonable “ceiling” comp is Kyle Schwarber, who profiles very similarly to Rodriguez, with a very good walk rate but a very high strikeout rate. Schwarber has more power but plays considerably worse defense (hence primarily DHing in 2024), but Twins fans would be extremely happy if Rodriguez turned into a consistent 35+ homer hitter with a .340+ OBP. Schwarber makes a nice fit, too, because his extreme tendency toward strikeouts has limited his upside at times, which we know is a risk with Rodriguez.
Median Comp – Ian Happ
Happ is Schwarber with less power, but better defense. While I think Rodriguez will strike out more and hit for more power than the current, increasingly balanced version of Happ. I think he presents a really good ballpark for Rodriguez’s 50th-percentile outcome. When Happ first came up, he was more extreme in his offensive profile, but his game has always been driven at least partially by abundant athleticism. Rodriguez has that, too.
Floor Comp – Joey Gallo
While Gallo has had an eight-year career (and counting), it would be pretty disappointing if Rodriguez turned into a guy who hit below the Mendoza line with a strikeout rate north of 35%. Sure, Gallo has three seasons of 38 or more home runs, but he also has five with 21 or fewer.
We may very well see Rodriguez debut in 2025 at just 22 years old. Given his age (and keeping in mind development is rarely linear), I might expect more Gallo than Schwarber in the early parts of his career. That said, I don’t think a Kyle Schwarber-esque player is out of the question down the road if the stars align on his development.
What are your thoughts on these player comps? Leave your own in the comments!
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