FRESNO, Calif. — Two Central California races for U.S. House seats are suddenly getting increased attention from the national parties because they could help determine control of the chamber — and represent hot new battlegrouands for Latino voters.
Why it matters: The fights for the seats held by Republican Reps. David Valadao and John Duarte reflect Democrats’ push to take over two majority-Latino districts that have never been represented by anyone of Mexican or Central American descent.
- Both parties are pouring money into the races after surprisingly close contests for the seats in 2022.
Zoom in: Democrats and Republicans alike are trying to figure out the emerging voting trends in Central California’s agricultural belt, as both parties try to appeal to the region’s growing numbers of Latino voters — many of them young adults.
- Voters in Valadao’s district, which is mostly between Bakersfield and Fresno, backed President Biden over Donald Trump by 13 percentage points in 2020. But they’ve elected Republicans to Congress and local mayorships.
- Valadao is facing a rematch with Democrat Rudy Salas, a former state lawmaker who lost to Valadao by just 3,000 votes in 2022.
Duarte is in a rematch for the House seat in his district, which is mostly west and north of Fresno.
- He faces former state lawmaker Adam Gray, whom he edged out by less than 600 votes in 2022.
The big picture: Central California was the site of some of the most dramatic moments of the Mexican American Civil Rights and Chicano movements.
- Many Latinos there say Democrats have taken them for granted for decades, as Republicans have made inroads with Latino voters.
The intrigue: The House races in Central California are being energized this year by both parties’ big-money ad buys.
- In June, the National Republican Congressional Committee announced it would spend a total of about $4 million on ad buys in Bakersfield, Fresno and Sacramento to help boost Valadao and Duarte.
- The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee also is spending millions on behalf of Salas and Gray as part of an initiative to mobilize and persuade Latino voters.
- The DCCC boasts that Salas has outraised Valadao two quarters in a row, and Gray has outraised Duarte three quarters in a row.
- “It’s night and day compared to last time,” Gray tells Axios.
BOLD PAC, the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’s political arm, also is backing Salas and Gray.
- It’s urging Central California voters to make history and send their first Latino from the region to Congress. (Valadao and Duarte are of Portuguese descent.)
- “Representation matters. The Central Valley, with its rich Latino culture, has never had a Latino voice in Congress. It’s time for our community to be heard,” BOLD PAC Chair Linda Sánchez said in a statement.
Yes, but: Joe Garcia, a labor contractor whose grandparents marched with labor leader Cesar Chavez, tells Axios that Central California Latinos care about results, not just whether an elected official is Latino.
- “David Valadao has been in the community and helped us when we needed it.”
- Leticia Ramos, 39, a grape picker from Richgrove, Calif., tells Axios she’s been impressed with Valadao’s work with Latinos and listening to their concerns.
- Valadao, a House member since 2013 who was one of 10 Republicans to vote to impeach Trump in 2021, touts his independence and efforts to provide clean water to the district. Duarte also has leaned into water, farming and cost-of-living issues.
The other side: Salas and Gray also cast themselves as independents who have bucked the Democratic Party at times.
- Salas gained national attention in 2017 for voting against California’s gas tax as a state lawmaker.
- “I represent people on fixed income. I represent people who are working two jobs. It was the right thing to do,” Salas said.
- “I was kicked off the water committee by my own party for trying to advance legislation that helped our water districts here,” said Gray, recounting a fight with state Democratic leaders and environmentalists.
