Latino voters in Arizona are expected to play an outsized role in deciding the country’s next president.
Why it matters: Of the six battleground states that could swing the election, Arizona has the largest share of Latino eligible voters, about a quarter of that state’s voters.
Zoom in: Once staunchly red, Arizona became a swing state in 2020 when Latinos, suburban voters and a large urban population helped Joe Biden become the first Democratic presidential candidate to win there since 1996.
- Arizona Latinos in 2020 chose Biden over Trump by a 3 to 1 ratio.
- Biden was well off those numbers before he dropped his bid for re-election.
- Now polls suggest Kamala Harris is doing better than Biden was, but still is scrambling to matching the levels of Latino support Biden posted in 2020 when he squeaked by Trump in Arizona.
State of play: Both candidates have made aggressive efforts to court Arizona voters, and Biden, before he stepped down, put a huge emphasis on Latinos in the state.
What they’re saying: “How Latinos in Arizona and other battleground states cast their votes can have a real meaningful impact on who ends up being the winner,” says Francisco Pedraza, the Associate Director of Arizona State’s Center for Latina/os and American Politics Research.
- Pedraza adds that “the things that are the most distinct about Latinos come from what makes Arizona distinct.” Immigration, climate change, reproductive rights and the economy are top ticket issues, he says.
Lea Márquez Peterson, who’s on the Arizona Corporation Commission and chairs the Republican-led Hispanic Leadership PAC, says the top issues she hears from Latinos across the state “are really about cost of living and the pocketbook issues of the day-to-day costs that families are facing.”
- Márquez Peterson says that although she grew up in a largely Democratic household, she registered as a Republican when she turned 18 because of her ties to the small business community.
- “The Latino community is one of the fastest growing segments of small business owners and tends to lean conservative,” she says.
Alex, a 23-year-old student studying public policy at University of Arizona, said she’ll vote for Harris because she’s concerned about the future of reproductive rights in the state. Alex asked that only her first name be used over concerns about future employment.
- “Especially as a young woman, it’s important that we have access to abortions and that we are in charge of our reproductive freedom,” she said.
Mario and Ruby Balboa, of Phoenix, said while voting in the state’s primary election on July 30 that abortion rights, the economy, inflation, high interest rates and immigration reform are the issues they care about.
- But more than anything, Ruby said her top issue is stopping Trump and the far-right conservative movement that permeates parts of Arizona’s politics.
- “A lot of Latinos around here, they’re afraid to come out and voice their opinion, maybe call the police when they have to for certain things, because of the problems we have with politics,” Ruby Balboa said.
