Cincinnati Bearcats basketball postseason depends on Big 12 tourney

STILLWATER, Okla. – The 2024-25 regular season for the Cincinnati Bearcats men’s basketball team is in the books with a final record of 17-14 (7-13 Big 12).

Saturday afternoon at Gallagher-Iba Arena, UC got down by 18 points in the first half, cut it to eight at the break, cut it to a point late, then were outscored 12-2 in the final four minutes to lose 78-67.

The Bearcats finished 5-5 at Fifth Third Arena in the Big 12 and 2-8 on the road. Last year’s team went into the Big 12 tournament 18-13 with seven Big 12 wins, though last season they played just 18 league games compared to 20 this season. UC now will square off again with Oklahoma State Tuesday at 12:30 p.m. on ESPN+ in the Big 12 tournament opening game.

At this point, the Bearcats need to survive and advance and maybe hope for an improbable 5-0 Big 12 tourney run to steal an automatic bid. Otherwise, upsets may have to abound for teams rated above them in the various bracketology computations.

ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has consistently banked on the Big 12 to qualify eight teams for the NCAA tournament which almost certainly leaves UC on the outside. Lunardi had UC listed as “next four out” before Saturday’s games. Neal Paine’s ESPN Bubble Watch had the Bearcats with an 18% chance at “The Dance” coming into the Oklahoma State game. Before back-to-back losses to Houston and Kansas State, they were 50-50.

Likewise, Evan Miyakawa ranks UC No. 58 and puts them in the category of “lots of work to do”. BartTorvik.com gives them just over a 12% chance of making the NCAA tournament. Teamrankings.com projects UC with a 73% chance of winning an opening game, 23% in the second round, 8% in the quarterfinals, 2.2% to win the semifinals and less than 1% (0.58) to hoist the trophy.

It’s been quite a fall for a team once ranked No. 14 in the AP and a consensus preseason Top 25. But, Kansas, Connecticut, Gonzaga, Butler and North Carolina were preseason Top 10 squads that came into this weekend unranked.

Just before UC took off for Stillwater for the regular season finale, UC AD John Cunningham reiterated his stance all season: Wes Miller is his guy.

What can Wes Miller correct with UC before Big 12 tourney?

“I thought we played with an edge there in the second half to compete on the road to get back in the game,” Miller said. “We’ve got to do that consistently. If we get our mindset right and we do that consistently, we have a much better chance to get on the right side. Consistency has not been where we need it to be, but resilience has been consistent. It might not happen when I want it to happen, but I haven’t seen them give in completely. It’s not a group of guys that are low-character that aren’t going to respond and aren’t going to fight.”

Cincinnati Bearcats lacked Quad 1 wins

Briefly Saturday, UC was given a second Quadrant 1 win as Baylor returned to No. 30 in the NCAA.NET rankings Saturday morning. However, that could be short-lived with as Houston beat Baylor 65-61 Saturday night in Waco. UC was briefly given credit for a Quad 1 win initially when beating Baylor but once the Bears dropped from the top 30 it was lost. Wins over Dayton at a neutral site and at UCF were also dropped once those teams dipped in the ratings. UC’s next chances at a Quad 1 win would be if they advanced and won in the Big 12 second round next Wednesday.

Projections from Big 12 Championships in Kansas City

UC dropped to the No. 13 seed with Saturday’s loss. The Bearcats chartered home after Saturday’s Oklahoma State game and will spend Sunday at home before flying to Kansas City on Monday.

They now face a rematch with Oklahoma State in the No. 12 vs. No. 13 seed opening game Tuesday at 12:30 p.m. Eastern. That would be similar to last season when UC ended the regular season with West Virginia, then played them again in round one.

“It’s just part of it if you end up playing Cincinnati again on Tuesday,” Oklahoma State coach Steve Lutz said. “It saves time in terms of scouting and preparation. They’re a good basketball team.”

The upside of UC’s seeding is they avoid top seed Houston by not getting the higher No. 9 seed. Houston, Texas Tech, Arizona and BYU have byes until Thursday’s quarterfinals. Either way, one loss and you pack the gear and go home.

The downside of UC being in the opening game Tuesday against Oklahoma State is the not-so-pleasant second round game vs. No. 5 seed Iowa State. The Bearcats had their chances in Ames, but Iowa State did win the Big 12 tourney a season ago. Beyond Iowa State, another game with BYU could be in the future. The Cougars bombed the Bearcats in Provo and UC returned the favor at Fifth Third Arena.

Truth be told, looking ahead in March is a good way to be disappointed on Selection Sunday.

Behold, what is the Crown?

The Crown Basketball Tournament competes with the NIT this year and has agreements with the Big 12, Big Ten and Big East to take the next two top qualifiers that don’t make the NCAA tournament. The Crown will run from March 31-April 6 in Las Vegas and will consist of 16 teams with at-large bids handed out in addition to the six teams from the Big 12, Big Ten and Big East.

The issue of note is that teams that are eliminated from their conference tournaments next week, will not play for almost three weeks. Early round games will take place in the MGM Grand with the semifinals and finals at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The wait seems awkward but as always, money can smooth over awkwardness.

Cincinnati Bearcats football notes

Pro Football Focus has listed former Cincinnati Bearcats guard Luke Kandra as the No. 5 interior offensive lineman and projected him as the No. 149 pick in the NFL Draft. That would put the Elder grad in Round Five. At the NFL Combine, Kandra did more bench press reps than any other offensive lineman (33).

Scott Satterfield’s third Big 12 spring football edition starts Monday. The Bearcats will have a Spring Showcase Saturday April 12, at noon, followed by three more practices.