Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves Game 5 odds, picks and predictions

The Minnesota Timberwolves welcome the Dallas Mavericks to Target Center for Game 5 of the best-of-7 Western Conference Finals Thursday. The Mavericks lead the series 3-1. Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Mavericks vs. Timberwolves odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Mavericks ripped off 3 straight wins to open this series, covering in each. They did come up short in Game 4, though, losing 105-100 Tuesday after closing as 1.5-point favorites. G Luka Doncic ended with a team-high 28 points but hit just 7 of 21 from the field.

Dallas beat the LA Clippers in 6 games in the 1st round and also won its 2nd-round series against the Oklahoma City Thunder in 6, covering 7 of 12 before the conference finals. The Mavs are 6-2 against the spread (ATS) on the road in the playoffs.

G Anthony Edwards, who leads the Wolves with 27.5 points per game in the playoffs, had his best performance of the series in Game 4, ending with 29 points and 10 rebounds.

As for Minnesota, the Wolves took down the defending champs, the Denver Nuggets, in 7 games in their 2nd-round series and swept the Phoenix Suns in the 1st round. They are 9-6 ATS through their 15 postseason games and 3-3 ATS as favorites.

Mavericks at Timberwolves odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:58 p.m. ET.

• Moneyline (ML): Mavericks +166 (bet $100 to win $166) | Timberwolves -198 (bet $198 to win $100)
• Against the spread: Mavericks +4.5 (-108) | Timberwolves -4.5 (-114)
• Over/Under (O/U): 209.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Mavericks at Timberwolves key injuries

Mavericks

• G Luka Doncic (knee, ankle) questionable
• C Dereck Lively II (neck) questionable

Timberwolves

• G Mike Conley (Achilles) questionable

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Mavericks at Timberwolves picks and predictions

Prediction

Timberwolves 107, Mavericks 105

Moneyline

PASS.

Unless one would rather back the Mavs on the moneyline than the spread, there’s not much value here. The Wolves (-198) are too pricey, and the Mavs have had each of their 1st 2 series end in 6 games.

Expect Minnesota to come out on top here, but avoid taking it at -198.

Against the spread

LEAN MAVERICKS +4.5 (-108).

In NBA standards, these games have had ultra-close finishes. All 4 games have been single-digit victories, and 3 of the 4 have been won by 5 or fewer points. The Mavericks are 5-1 ATS as underdogs in the postseason, and they are 4-0 ATS through their last 4 games on the road.

Minnesota had a perfect style of play to down Denver and throttled a disoriented Phoenix team. While those were impressive, the Mavs have shown to be a more challenging matchup, and this should continue to be a hard-fought series. Since May 10, the Wolves have been favored 5 times and are 1-4 ATS in those games.

Back MAVERICKS +4.5 (-108).

Over/Under

BET OVER 209.5 (-110).

Both teams are trending towards the Over, as is the series as a whole.

The Wolves have gone Over in 6 of their last 9 and are 5-2 O/U in their 7 home playoff games this season. Similarly, the Mavs have gone Over in 8 of their last 13 games and are 4-2 O/U in their last 6 on the road.

Three of 4 games in the series have gone Over, and in the lone one that didn’t, the Mavs shot 42% while G Kyrie Irving and Doncic combined to hit just 13 of 39 from the field. The superstars should play better in their 2nd potential close-out game.

Back OVER 209.5 (-110).

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