Democrats received good news this week about their chances in two Texas House races in seats won by President Donald Trump in last year’s election.
Newsweek reached out to the Texas Democratic and Republican parties for comment via email.
Why It Matters
A handful of South Texas districts are being eyed as some of the most competitive races of the 2026 midterms, when Democrats are hoping to flip control of the House. These seats are historically more Democratic but flipped to Trump last November as Hispanic voters shifted rightward nationwide.
Democrats are hoping to win back support from the Latino community next year as polls suggest Trump’s approval with Hispanic and Latino voters has fallen. An AP-NORC poll released last month showed that 25 percent of Hispanic adults had a “somewhat” or “very” favorable view of Trump in October, down from 44 percent earlier this year. These South Texas House races will be a key measure as to how the preferences of Hispanic voters may be changing.
What To Know
Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a forecaster that tracks elections across the country, shifted two of Texas’ congressional races away from Republicans on Wednesday, a sign that they could be more competitive than initially expected. Those seats are the 15th District held by Republican Monica De La Cruz, which was changed from Safe Republican to Likely Republican, and the 34th District, a seat held by Democrat Vicente Gonzalez, which shifted from Leans Republican to Toss-Up.
The ratings reflect the map passed by Texas Republicans earlier this year that was meant to create districts more favorable to Republicans in South Texas, as well as the suburbs of Houston and Dallas. Whether that map will be used in the midterms remains an open question, as a court this week ruled that the current map must be used.
The changes are unrelated to that ruling, Kyle Kondik of Sabato’s Crystal Ball wrote in the update. Trump’s 10-point victory in the 34th District may be “hard for Republicans to replicate in 2026,” he wrote. “The uncertainty with the trajectory of the Latino vote in the context of the 2026 midterm suggests to us that this should now be a Toss-up, and we’re moving it there, even as it remains an attractive offensive target for Republican.”
De La Cruz should be in a better position in her district, which backed Trump by 18 points in 2024 and 2.5 points in 2020, he wrote.
“She should still be fine, but we’re adding her to our Likely Republican list. Her top potential general election opponent is Tejano music star Bobby Pulido (D),” he wrote. “Again, just to be clear, all of these rating decisions are based on the new Texas map that Republicans drew earlier this year, and which a federal judicial panel just threw out.”
Both seats are likely to be in play next year, Mark Jones, fellow in political science at the Baker Institute and political science professor at Rice University, told Newsweek. Trump’s approval rating has fallen across the country, particularly among Latino voters, he said.
“In a survey that we did in September and October, we found that when you asked Latino voters who voted for Trump back in 2024, the proportion who said they would vote for him again is 14 points lower,” he said. “Along with Gen Z, they’re one of the groups Trump has really lost the most support among.”
South Texas saw some of the largest swings across the country last year as a result of Latino voters’ frustration with the Biden administration’s economic and immigration policies, Jones said. This was particularly pronounced among men, he added. But his gains in South Texas districts were always “soft.”
“Donald Trump’s victory in those districts was in many ways built on sand, not on rock,” Jones said.
What People Are Saying
A campaign spokesperson for Representative Monica De La Cruz told Newsweek: “Is this the same Larry Sabato who predicted Kamala Harris would win Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania? His ‘Crystal Ball’ is about as worthless as vegan BBQ. South Texans are sticking with Congresswoman De La Cruz because she delivers for the people.”
Mark Jones, fellow in political science at the Baker Institute and political science professor at Rice University, told Newsweek: “When we’re thinking about the mid-decade redistricting, one of goals in Texas was to provide Donald Trump with five seats. The more the Latino vote begins to shift away from Texas Republicans and Trump, the less likely it becomes that Republicans will be able to achieve that goal of five seats.”
Kyle Kondik, of Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Following an apparent Democratic rebound with Latinos in November’s elections, we are beginning to wonder whether we were rash in initially rating TX-34, a South Texas seat extending from the southern border to Corpus Christi, as Leans Republican following the aforementioned Republican remap.”
What Happens Next
Texas has appealed the ruling on its mid-decade redistricting to the U.S. Supreme Court, which must decide whether its map is constitutional. The Cook Political Report, another forecaster, classifies TX-15 as Likely Republican and TX-34 as Lean Republican.
