THE POLLS HAVE SHOWN for months that Democrats are headed for a big midterm. And now that final early-voting numbers are in from Texas, North Carolina, and Georgia, we can say the early vote mostly backs that up.
As I wrote yesterday, even if Republicans make up a lot of ground on Election Day, Democrats will probably finish with a turnout edge at least as big as 2018’s in most states. In his forecast, Michael McDonald largely affirms my analysis. Florida had its last day of early voting yesterday, and I’ll add more from the Sunshine State to the live blog later today.
For now, I want to cover new voters — a small group, but one that could make the difference in a close race. Polls indicate new voters may be around 10-15% of midterm voters this year, and early vote data and polls suggest the group is solidly blue. But I want to look at new voters through the lenses of both partisanship and demographics.
By “new voters,” I mean people who skipped the last two general elections. That could be brand-new registrants, plus folks coming back after a long break. In North Carolina, new voters cast 8.3% of early ballots this year, up from 7.4% at the same point in 2022. A lot of new voters will also vote on Election Day.
The early vote data suggest new voters in 2022 are younger, more Latino, and a lot less Republican than the new voters of 2022. Let’s run the numbers.
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