Last month on the Falcons Podcast, I was asked what I would consider a good outcome for the Atlanta Falcons in 2026.
With so much change since we last saw the Falcons beating the New Orleans Saints to close the season, the simple answer would be something along the lines of a winning record or the playoffs. The Falcons have accomplished neither since 2017.
For me, the answer to the question would likely determine a winning season and/or the playoffs, but would also ensure the Falcons are competitive for the next several years – finish 2026, knowing they have their franchise quarterback.
There are big questions around the long term viability in the quarterback room for the Falcons. Michael Penix Jr. is recovering from the third ACL tear of his career and his fifth season-ending injury in his seven seasons as a starting quarterback, dating back to college.
The Miami Dolphins took on a record $100 million dead cap hit to release Tua Tagovailoa, and the Falcons were able to sign him for a veteran minimum of $1.3 million. Long-term injury concerns, including concussions and a serious hip injury, follow Tagovailoa from Miami to Atlanta.
Staying healthy isn’t the only concern for Atlanta. There remains a question if either player is good enough to be a franchise quarterback, even if they manage to stay healthy. Penix is unproven with mixed results in just 12 career starts, and Tagovailoa’s production fell off enough that the Dolphins are taking a $100 million cap hit to let him go.
If the Falcons get good enough play from either of them to warrant committing to a quarterback for the long term, they’re likely a playoff team in 2026. This was not a great year to be shopping for a new quarterback, with only Fernando Mendoza and Ty Simpson considered Day 1 or Day 2 picks in the draft.
So, evaluating Penix and getting Tagovailoa on the cheap made a lot of sense in Atlanta.
However, If they don’t get adequate quarterback play this season, they’ll be back in the market for a new one in 2027 with a bundle of cash and a high first-round draft pick.
It’s nearly impossible to get a franchise quarterback in free agency, but luckily for the Falcons, if they find themselves in the quarterback market, the 2027 draft class looks much better than what 2026 has to offer.
Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer highlights the depth, if not the sure-fire can’t-miss prospect, in 2027.
“The list is long: Oregon’s Dante Moore, Texas’s Arch Manning, Notre Dame’s CJ Carr, Ohio State’s Julian Sayin, USC’s Jayden Maiava, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers, LSU’s Sam Leavitt, Texas Tech’s Brendan Sorsby, Ole Miss’s Trinidad Chambliss, Oklahoma’s John Mateer, Miami’s Darian Mensah and UCLA’s Nico Iamaleava,” Breer wrote on SI.
“With more than a dozen guys considered in this running and the chance that others emerge from outside the group, there’s a good chance next year will be a quarterback-rich year for teams in need.”
Again, the best outcome for the Falcons in 2026, is that they are not a team in need of a quarterback for 2027. But if they are one of those teams, they’ll have much better options than they would have had this year, even with a first-round pick.
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