Saturday felt like a significant moment in NBA Cup history. San Antonio’s upset over Oklahoma City didn’t just punch a ticket to the tournament final. It was a message to the rest of the sport. The Spurs are no longer just a young team on the rise. They’re here, now, ready to compete with any team in the league. And after taking down the Western Conference favorite on Saturday, they’ll get their shot at the Eastern Conference favorite on Tuesday against the Knicks
The Knicks took the quieter path to the final. They didn’t have to slay Luka Dončić and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to get here. But New York has waited 52 years for a pro basketball championship of any kind. This isn’t the one they’ve spent five decades waiting for, but you can bet the Knicks still want to bring this trophy back home to New York as NBA Cup champions, and they, too, want to make a statement. If you can’t beat the champ, beating the team that beat the champ is the next best thing.
So let’s dig in on Tuesday’s NBA Cup final and make some best bets for the marquee game of the regular season thus far.
New York Knicks vs. San Antonio Spurs
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET | Date: Tuesday, Dec. 16
Location: T-Mobile Arena — Las Vegas
Live stream: Amazon Prime Video
Odds (via FanDuel): NYK -136 | SA +116 | O/U: 232.5
There isn’t much separating the Knicks and Spurs at this point. They have the same record (18-7). New York’s net rating is meaningfully higher, but that makes sense when you consider Victor Wembanyama‘s lengthy absence. The Spurs with Wembanyama are roughly even with the Knicks when Jalen Brunson plays. They haven’t played this season, so there’s no template here. We’re just betting on styles here. San Antonio allows the second-most mid-range shots in the NBA, and the sixth-highest mid-range field goal percentage. That sort of aggressive drop-coverage can be very problematic against Jalen Brunson, specifically. He loves walking into mid-range jumpers as bigs hang near the basket, and in a big game, he’s going to be willing to take and make as many of those shots as it takes. In a game this even, that little matchup advantage gives New York the slimmest of edges. The Pick: Knicks -2.5
It’s a simple pick, but I almost always lean toward the under in single-elimination games. Game 7s almost always see low scores, so the bet here is that the players start out tight and miss some early shots. Remember, most of these Spurs are young and reasonably inexperienced in big-game settings. The Knicks aren’t, but this is also one of the NBA’s slowest teams, and should therefore be eager to turn this into a half-court slugfest rather than a track meet with the younger, faster Spurs. The Pick: Under 232.5
We covered the sort of shots San Antonio gives up. What about the Knicks? They’re near the top of the league in 3-pointers allowed, specifically out of the left corner. Why does this matter? Because Harrison Barnes takes the second-most left corner 3s per game in the entire NBA, and he’s made over 47% of them this season. You’re paying a big vig here, but I think it’s worth it. The Pick: Barnes Over 1.5 3-pointers (-190)
