Thursday’s NBA action features a shorter, four-game slate, headlined by MVP candidate Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs taking on a red-hot Miami Heat team.
San Antonio is off to a 4-0 start this season while Miami has won three games in a row after dropping its season opener against the Orlando Magic.
In addition to the Heat-Spurs matchup, the Golden State Warriors and Steph Curry are looking to keep their hot start going against Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks, who upset the New York Knicks on Tuesday.
With only four total games and only one team playing the second night of a back-to-back, I’ve combed through plenty of sides and player props for Oct. 30.
Here’s a breakdown of my favorite plays for tonight’s NBA action.
Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
San Antonio Spurs -5.5 (-115) vs. Miami Heat
The Spurs and Heat are both perfect against the spread this season (San Antonio is 2-0-2 while Miami is 4-0), but I’m backing the Spurs at home on Thursday night.
Miami has gotten off to a great start, ranking third in the NBA in net rating, but it’s down multiple key players on offense on Thursday.
Tyler Herro (foot) remains out of the lineup while Norman Powell (groin) is doubtful. Powell, who is averaging 24.0 points per game, missed Miami’s last win over the Charlotte Hornets.
That leaves the Heat with very little offensive punch against a Spurs team that is second in the NBA in defensive rating this season. San Antonio can wall off the paint with Victor Wembanyama, and now the Heat are down their two best perimeter players.
Miami’s offense has been a revelation so far in the 2025-26 season compared to last season, but I don’t trust it to keep pace on the road against a Spurs team that looks like a legitimate contender for a playoff spot in the West.
Steph Curry 25+ Points (-152)
Steph Curry’s points prop on Thursday is set at 26.5 points, but I’m moving it slightly to 25+ at -152 odds.
Curry has failed to hit this line in three of his five games this season, scoring 16 and 19 points in his last two matchups. Still, he has a great matchup against a Milwaukee Bucks team that has struggled to guard point guards in the 2025-26 campaign, allowing 27.91 points per game to them.
Jalen Brunson torched Milwaukee for 36 points on Tuesday night, and Curry has 29 or more points in his three games against Milwaukee since the start of the 2022-23 season.
After playing less than 30 minutes in three games in a row because of the Warriors winning or losing big (or being on a back-to-back), Curry should see a much more normal workload on Thursday night.
Isaiah Hartenstein OVER 11.5 Rebounds (-117)
Chet Holmgren has been ruled out for the Oklahoma City Thunder on Thursday against the Washington Wizards, opening up a chance for Isaiah Hartenstein to play a massive role on the glass.
Holmgren was also out against the Kings in the team’s last game and Hartenstein turned in a monster showing on the glass, grabbing 14 rebounds in 30:49 of playing time. He’s now grabbed at least 10 boards in four games in a row, clearing 11.5 rebounds in three of his five appearances in the 2025-26 season.
Hartenstein is one of the better rebounders in the league, averaging 11.6 boards per game this season while racking up 21.4 rebound chances per game.
This is a great matchup against a Washington team that ranks 28th in the NBA in opponent rebounds per game and 16th in rebounding percentage. Hartenstein also has 15 offensive boards in five games, so he’s not totally reliant on hitting the defensive glass only to hit this number.
Giannis Antetokounmpo-Jaime Jaquez Jr. Points Parlay (-145)
Giannis Antetokounmpo 25+ Points
Giannis Antetokounmpo has scored 30 or more points in three of his last five meetings with Golden State, and he’s scored 31 or more points in all four of his games this season.
So, moving his line down to 25 or more points seems like an easy bet on Thursday night.
The Greek Freak is attempting 20.5 shots per game and leads the NBA in field goals made, 2-pointers made and 2-pointers attempted per game. That gives him a terrific floor when it comes to this prop, especially against a Golden State team that lacks a true rim protector in its rotation.
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 12+ Points
Rookie year Jaime Jaquez Jr. is back?
After a down 2024-25 season (his second in the NBA), Jaquez is off to a fast start this season, averaging 18.8 points per game while shooting 68.9 percent from the field and 25.0 percent from 3-point range.
Even though he’s yet to make a start this season, Jaquez is averaging 28.0 minutes per game — up 7.3 minutes per night from a season ago. On top of that, he’s averaging a career-high 11.3 field goal attempts per game, which has helped him score 13 or more points in all four of his games this season, including three with 17 or more points.
With Powell out of the lineup against Charlotte, Jaquez finished with 28 points in 28:14 on 9-of-14 shooting from the field. He could be in line for an expanded offensive role once again on Thursday with Powell listed as doubtful.
I love moving his line down to just 12+ points on Thursday night.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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