Both No. 1 seeds are in action on Tuesday night in the conference semifinals, and the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder take center stage after they swept the Phoenix Suns in the first round of the playoffs.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and company are heavily favored in Game 1 against the Los Angeles Lakers, and SGA is an interesting prop target in this matchup. Los Angeles is expected to be without Luka Doncic (hamstring) once again, making this and uphill battle for LeBron James and Austin Reaves to keep L.A.’s season alive beyond the second round.
In the Eastern Conference, the No. 1-seeded Detroit Pistons completed a comeback from a 3-1 series deficit in Game 7 against the Orlando Magic on Sunday, and now they face another team that won a Game 7 to advance in the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs have yet to pick up a road win in this postseason, but I think Donovan Mitchell and company are a sneaky bet in this series opener.
Let’s jump right into today’s edition of Peter’s Points, where I have one side and one player prop for Tuesday’s Game 1s.
1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record
- 2025-26 season record: 283-242 (-2.08 units)
- 2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
- OVERALL (since 2021-22 season): 1574-1480-27 (+31.06 units)
Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
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Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
- Cleveland Cavaliers +3.5 (-115) vs. Detroit Pistons
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ Points (-174)
Cleveland Cavaliers +3.5 (-115) vs. Detroit Pistons
Cleveland didn’t have a great series against Toronto, going to seven games even though Immanuel Quickley missed the entire series and Brandon Ingram sat out the majority of the final three games.
Despite that, I’m buying the Cavs on the road in Game 1.
Cleveland is 8-5 against the spread as a road underdog this season, and the Cavs have a far better offense than Detroit, which was 11th out of 16 teams in the first round of the playoffs. Cade Cunningham had a big series and Tobias Harris finished with four straight 20-point games, but the Pistons didn’t get much from anyone else the entire series against Orlando.
Cleveland, which had the No. 6 offense in the NBA during the regular season, averaged nearly 112 points per game in the first round and is a much better team than Orlando that will capitalize on shaky offensive stretches from the Pistons.
The Cavs aren’t nearly as good defensively, but Orlando still stole three games from Detroit despite posting an offensive rating of 101.9 in the first round (dead last in the playoffs).
With this spread set just outside one possession, I like the Cavs to cover on Tuesday night.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ Points (-174)
Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 31.1 points per game in the regular season, and he dominated against Phoenix in the first round, scoring 31 or more points in the final three games of the series.
The star guard is going to get all the shots he can handle, and he was ultra-efficient against the Suns, knocking down 55.1 percent of his shots from the field. The Lakers don’t have a ton of great guard defenders after Marcus Smart, and SGA easily scored over 20 points in all three of his meetings with them – even though OKC won most of those games in blowouts.
Since the Thunder are likely to give the reigning MVP a longer leash in the playoffs, I like moving his points prop down from 31.5 to 30-plus in Game 1.
SGA has averaged 30.2, 29.9 and 33.8 points per game over his last three playoff runs (including this season).
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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