The second round of the NBA playoffs is in full swing, as four teams open up their second-round series on Monday night.
In the Eastern Conference, the New York Knicks and Jalen Brunson are massive underdogs against Jayson Tatum and the defending champion Boston Celtics, as they went 0-4 against Boston in the regular season. The C’s are -800 favorites to win the series and nine-point favorites in Game 1.
I have a pick for a side in that game as well as two player props for today’s NBA Best Bets.
In the Western Conference, Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets are fresh off a Game 7 win and have a quick turnaround against the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder. OKC swept the Memphis Grizzlies and has been off for quite some time ahead of this matchup.
Oddsmakers have set the Thunder (who are the current favorites to win the title) as nine-point favorites in Game 1.
As always, I’m sharing my breakdowns and top bets for the playoff action on Monday night.
Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Jayson Tatum OVER 27.5 Points (-120) – 0.5 unit
This season, Tatum has dominated the Knicks, averaging 33.5 points per game while taking at least 18 shots in every matchup. He has killed Karl-Anthony Towns and the Knicks’ drop coverage in the pick-and-roll, clearing 27.5 points in three of the four meetings between these squads.
Tatum has at least 25 points in every game against the Knicks this season, and he’s gotten off to a great start in the playoffs.
In the final three games against Orlando after missing Game 2 with a wrist injury, Tatum scored 36, 37 and 35 points. He seems to be on a mission, and with Jaylen Brown dealing with a knee injury and Jrue Holiday nursing a bad hamstring, a lot more has fallen on Tatum’s plate.
He should thrive against this Knicks team that hasn’t had an answer for him all season.
Kristaps Porzingis OVER 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-180) – 0.5 unit
Kristaps Porzingis is a former Knick, and he’s loved torching his former team since being traded to Boston.
In seven matchups against the Knicks as a Celtic, Porzingis has made at least two 3-pointers in all of them, shooting a combined 26-for-52 from deep (50.0 percent). He’s taken at least five shots from beyond the arc in all seven of those games.
Last season, the Knicks had issues guarding Myles Turner – another stretch big – and they have been awful against Boston’s pick-and-roll offense all season long. KP should get plenty of easy looks against a Knicks team that was in the bottom five in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage during the regular season.
Oklahoma City Thunder-Boston Celtics Moneyline Parlay (-185) – 0.5 unit
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKC is a massive favorite in Game 1 for good reason.
The Thunder are an NBA best 29-12-2 against the spread when favored at home this season, and they were also 11-5-1 against the spread when they had a rest advantage.
This OKC team is not only fresh, but it has a way deeper bench than Denver. The Nuggets are essentially playing six games at the moment – there are some spot minutes for DeAndre Jordan and Peyton Watson – and they have a short turnaround after a wild seven-game series with the Clippers.
Denver, like most teams, has struggled with a rest disadvantage this season (11-12 against the spread), and it has not held up on the defensive end since the All-Star break, ranking 23rd in the league in defensive rating.
Even though OKC had some anxious moments in Game 3 against Memphis, it rolled through that series without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander playing at his best. Denver lacks the perimeter defenders to deal with SGA (outside of Christian Braun), and OKC has been too good at home this season (37-6 overall) for me to fade it in Game 1.
Boston Celtics
During the regular season, Boston had four wins against the Knicks and three of them came by double digits.
New York’s defense simply couldn’t hold up against the C’s, and even a shorthanded Boston team beat the Knicks in overtime late in the regular season.
Brunson’s heroics against the Detroit Pistons kept the Knicks alive, but New York only had a plus-eight point differential in that series. That is way too close for my liking when heading into a matchup with the defending champs.
Boston finished the regular season with the second-best net rating in the NBA, and it can beat the Knicks in a ton of ways on offense, but mainly by spamming pick-and-roll against Karl-Anthony Towns. In the first five games of the series against Detroit, New York was allowing more than one point per possession against Detroit’s pick-and-roll offense with Towns in the action.
Not great.
The C’s have dominated at home this season, going 28-13 in the regular season and 3-0 in the playoffs. They also covered the spread in both home games that Tatum played in during the Orlando series.
As for the Knicks, they are just 5-14 against the spread this season when they have a rest disadvantage. I’m not buying them to pull off the upset in Game 1.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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