No NBA award generates near the level of passion and debate as Most Valuable Player. Stalking this race starts early — by the end of the first week of the season, there will be people on podcasts talking about how “Player X is off to a fast start, he’s making his MVP case.”
Will there be much debate this season? Not according to the team at NBCSports.com — everyone is picking the same guy, Victor Wembanyama. Here are our picks, but first the odds for the top five, via our partners at DraftKings:
Victor Wembanyama +210
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +350
Nikola Jokic +500
Luka Doncic +550
Giannis Antetokounmpo +1200
2026-27 NBA Most Valuable Player prediction
Kurt Helin, NBC lead NBA writer:
Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
I spent way too much time trying to find a reason — other than health — to pick anyone other than Victor Wembanyama to win this award. I couldn’t do it. There are other players I can legitimately make a case for: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has won the last two MVPs and is in his prime on a team that is going to win a lot of games; Nikola Jokic has averaged a triple-double two straight years and may have won it last year if a knee injury hadn’t slowed him near the end of the season; Luka Doncic is in his prime and has a team around him now better built to take advantage of his skill set. Still, it comes back to Wembanyama, in part because he’ll also have a massive defensive impact that can’t be overlooked, and at age 22 his offense is improving each year. If Wemby’s healthy, he’s going to be very tough to beat.
Raphielle Johnson, NBC Sports Fantasy basketball lead analyst:
Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
Wembanyama’s first postseason should have put to rest the idea that elite players have to deal with multiple failures before reaching the mountaintop. With the 7-foot-5 phenom leading the way, the Spurs reached the NBA Finals for the first time in over a decade. Of course, San Antonio didn’t win the title, and that should motivate Wembanyama. This pick isn’t so much about it being his “turn” as it is about the feeling that Wemby is ready to take his individual dominance to another level. He’ll be the MVP this season.
Jay Croucher, NBC Sports Lead Betting Analyst:
Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
Wembanyama is the favorite for a reason — he had an MVP level season last year and at 22 years old he is still ascending, on what is likely a 60+ win team. There is plenty of room for growth in his offensive game and some of that growth should materialize this season. Judging by his comments towards the end of last season, he will have no issue campaigning for himself either.
Drew Dinsick, NBC Sports betting analyst:
Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
Wemby is the rightful favorite to win what will likely be the first of several MVPs. We’re entering an era in which his presence on the court is widely understood to be the most impactful in basketball, and he leads a Spurs team with realistic hopes of a top-two seed in the West. He took a meaningful step forward in last year’s playoffs while proving his durability, which makes award eligibility less of a question mark. His three primary competitors all carry significant red flags. The league’s emphasis on offensive off-arm contact will likely hurt the efficiency of both Shai and Luka, and it’s highly unlikely that Jokić and the Nuggets will threaten the top of the Western Conference standings this season. In my opinion, that should create a meaningful gap between Wemby and the field.
Noah Rubin, NBC Sports fantasy basketball writer:
Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
There are probably five players that have a strong chance to win MVP, and there are a few others that are talented enough to win the award if they have a breakout year and enough team success. To me, it probably comes down to Wemby and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, since I don’t believe the Nuggets, Lakers or Heat will have enough success as a team to take any of their stars over Wemby or SGA. Factoring in that I don’t want my preseason prediction to be taking the guy that won the last two MVPs (even if he’ll have a strong case) and some voter fatigue, I’m landing on Wemby.
He’s already the best defender in the league at 22 years old, and he took major strides on the offensive end last season. He adjusted his shot diet to prioritize getting buckets down low, though he’s still incredible from beyond the arc at his height. It wouldn’t be shocking to see him take another leap forward, but team success is going to be what really puts him in this conversation. The Spurs finished just two games behind the Thunder last season. If the records are similar again, and Wemby continues to get better (as most 22 year olds do), he’ll have a strong case to take home his first MVP.
