The 2024 NBA postseason is well underway, and the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will provide daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals.
I normally take a more definitive stance than this, but my pick here is literally going to come down to whether or not Dereck Lively II ultimately plays. Dallas is +22 in his minutes in this series and -14 when he’s out. Maxi Kleber looked promising in his Game 4 return, but he still seems a bit hesitant to launch 3’s, which is where his offensive value comes from. If Lively is in, take Dallas. If Lively is out, take Minnesota. Since I have to make a pick for this space, I’m going to tentatively grab Dallas for the sake of the points and my general optimism, but my advice is going to be to wait for an answer on Lively. The Pick: Mavericks +4.5
I like the over for a few reasons. Obviously, I don’t think Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving will combine to shoot 13-of-39 again. Even if Jaden McDaniels is a better defensive matchup for Irving than he was for Doncic, I expect Doncic to come out for Game 5 prepared for the adjustment, as no strategic shift Minnesota has tried has succeeded for very long against him. Karl-Anthony Towns finding his stroke from 3 helps as well. Even if he’s unlikely to make four-of-five in Game 5, it’s at least reasonable to assume he’ll be better than he was in Games 1-3. The Pick: Over 209.5
Irving has proven entirely comfortable putting up low-scoring numbers when matchups have dictated it. The McDaniels matchup is less than ideal for him, as it was Devin Booker and Jamal Murray. McDaniels is among the best forwards in the NBA at leveraging his length against smaller guards. Irving has proven time and time again in this postseason that he can affect games in other ways, ramping up his own defense and doing little things when offense isn’t as readily available. He’ll have a good Game 5, it just won’t come through his individual scoring. The Pick: Irving Under 23.5 Points
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