You’ll never find me complaining about a good week when it comes to my NFL Projection Model’s best bets, but I had a regret with one of the losing plays.
I went on the Raiders at +3.5 after telling myself that I thought the Brock Bowers injury was more serious than the team was letting on. All the talk was that Bowers was ready to go, and he managed his fourth-worst yards per route performance of his brief career. Chalk it up to the Chargers defense or bad quarterback play, but either way, I should have stuck with my gut. But hey, a good week is a good week. Let’s stay positive.
Last week’s record: 4-2, +1.70 units
Season record: 6-5, +0.45 units, +3.7% ROI
The model is only firing on three plays right now, but with a couple of quarterbacks up in the air as well as some major injuries at key positions, I have to hold off until injury reports come out through the rest of the week. Check my X (@amock419) for any added plays as those reports start to come out. As always, shop around for the best price and good luck!
NFL Week 3 best bets
Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns under 41.5 (-110)
While I wish I could bet on the Packers this week, I can’t justify the price. But I do think they’ll suffocate this Browns offense, which gives me some value on the under here. We bet the Browns under last week, which didn’t look great when looking at the final score, but they somehow managed to hold the Ravens to less than 250 yards of total offense. I think we get a slight bounce back from the Browns defense and pair that with another week of Micah Parsons getting used to this Packers defensive scheme, and watch out … for a low-scoring game.
Worst price to bet: Under 41.5 (-110)
Los Angeles Rams +3.5 (-115) at Philadelphia Eagles
I’m a little concerned about this Eagles offense. Jalen Hurts was elite against Cover-1 last season, ranking third among qualified quarterbacks in EPA per dropback and dropback success rate. Through two games, per TruMedia and PFF, Hurts has not faced Cover-1 a single time this year. It’s no secret that Hurts isn’t the most polished passer when he’s going through his reads, though I think he’s better than most give him credit for. But if this Eagles offense has been “solved” — Saquon Barkley is averaging less than four yards per carry as well — I struggle to see them winning many games by margin.
Worst price to bet: Rams +3 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants under 45.5 (-115)
Do not take much stock in Russell Wilson’s performance against the Cowboys last week. Yes, this is the ultimate sandwich spot for the Chiefs in between the Eagles and the Ravens, but this Giants offense should struggle against a quality defense. Just look back at the performance against the Commanders in Week 1. I’d expect something closer to that than last week, obviously. As for the Chiefs offense, I think they’ll be able to move the ball against a disappointing Giants defense so far this season, but even with Xavier Worthy returning to the lineup, I don’t know if he steps back in at 100 percent. I’d expect more dink and dunk from the Chiefs this week.
Worst price to bet: Under 45 (-110)
(Photo of Byron Young: Justin Ford / Getty Images)
