BUNCOMBE COUNTY, N.C. (WLOS) — Republicans in North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District are just days away from choosing a candidate to replace U.S. Rep. Chuck Edwards on the November ballot after the incumbent announced he would not seek reelection.
While the district has long favored Republicans, political analysts say changing demographics are making western North Carolina increasingly competitive.
The Republican executive committee is scheduled to meet the evening of Aug. 10, where party leaders could select a new candidate within minutes through a committee vote.
Read more: NORTH CAROLINA REP. CHUCK EDWARDS WITHDRAWS FROM RE-ELECTION CAMPAIGN
Political scientist and director of the Public Policy Institute at Western Carolina University Dr. Chris Cooper said that North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District has shifted politically over the past several election cycles.
“Buncombe County, Henderson County and Transylvania County all moved left in two consecutive election cycles, while the rest of the state and country have been moving rightward,” Cooper said.
The district includes Asheville, a Democratic stronghold, surrounded by rural counties that traditionally vote Republican. Analysts say growth among younger residents and newcomers moving to North Carolina is expanding the number of unaffiliated voters, contributing to what Cooper describes as the state’s continued “purpling.”
“I think we’re going to see an incredibly close race,” Cooper said for NC-11. “Yes, the map in some ways leans Republican, but the year seems to favor Democrats.”
According to state voter registration data, about 39.9% of North Carolina voters are registered as unaffiliated, compared with 29.8% Republican and 29.6% Democrat.
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Within the 11th Congressional District, unaffiliated voters make up about 43% of registered voters, while Republicans account for roughly 32% and Democrats about 24%.
Despite those trends, local Republican leaders remain confident the district will remain in GOP hands.
“The people of western North Carolina are generally very conservative, traditional people,” said Merry Guy, the chair of the North Carolina Republican Party’s 11th Congressional District committee. “They want what’s good for the country. They enjoy the principles the Republican Party stands for.”
Guy acknowledged the race could be competitive but said Republicans believe the district’s conservative values remain strong.
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Republican state Sen. Tim Moffitt announced on X that he intends to seek the nomination, writing that he wants to “represent Western North Carolina in Congress.”
Guy confirmed Moffitt has informed party leaders of his wishes. Moffitt did not return News 13’s call for comment on his desire to enter the race.
“Yes, he and I have spoken, and he has let me know that he plans to be there Monday night,” Guy said, speaking of the scheduled committee meeting.
Republicans will convene at 6:30 p.m. Monday to consider any additional candidates before selecting their nominee if no others come forward. The winner will face Democratic candidate Jamie Ager in what analysts believe will be one of the nation’s most-watched congressional races, along with North Carolina’s open U.S. Senate race.
