Rousey opens as big favorite

MMA trailblazers Ronda Rousey and Gina Carano are coming out of retirement to put on what they suggest will be a highly entertaining, maybe even epic, fight.

But oddsmakers suggest there’s little doubt about the outcome of their bout May 15 at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California, that will be livestreamed by Netflix.

Rousey is a massive favorite based on the opening moneyline, with BetMGM installing her as a -650 favorite and Carano as a +425 underdog. That indicates Rousey has an 86.7% probability of winning the fight.

Why is Rousey such an overwhelming favorite? There’s more than one factor.

Name recognition: Ronda Rousey has massive following

Most Valuable Promotions, co-founded by Jake Paul, is promoting this fight. At the first press conference, Paul mispronounced Carano’s name, as if he’d never heard it.

Much of the public still knows and adores Rousey, who has retained the brand name. To some degree the former UFC champion still is regarded as a heroic figure. By contrast, Carano fought in relative obcurity, before the UFC welcomed female fighters.

All of the above likely will drive bettors to wager on Rousey.

Risk: Sports books reducing it with Ronda Rousey as odds favorite

Taking too many wagers on one fighter puts the sports book at risk if there’s a big payout. So installing Rousey as a massive favorite in turn makes Carano a heavy underdog. That in turn makes her a more appealing betting option and keeps the sports book from accepting too much money on one fighter.

“There’s absolutely an aspect of balancing the action to protect the sports book,” said John Murray, Vice President for Race & Sports at Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas. “We can’t go down in flames on an event like this.”

Rust: Gina Carano hasn’t fought since 2009

Rousey has not fought since 2016 – almost 9½ years ago. Rusty? You bet.

Carano has not fought since 2009 – almost 17 years ago. Rusty? There may not be enough WD-40 to remove it.

Age: Ronda Rousey is still in her 30s

Gina Carano turned 44 last month. Rousey turned 39 in February.

The five years difference might give Rousey an edge. But in January, she had her second child. Not sure how oddsmakers regard the impact of motherhood on a fighter.

Skill: Ronda Rousey faced better competition than Gina Carano

Carano was a trailblazer, taking her first pro fight in 2006 and knocking out Leiticia Pestova in the first round. She won her next six fights before she suffered a first-round TKO loss to Cris Cyborg that sent Carano into retirement.

Rousey said she wants to rewrite the ending of her career, understandably. She was knocked out by Holly Holm, suffered a first-round TKO loss to Amanda Nunez and then went into hiding.

But Rousey faced better competition than Carano did and was 12-0 before her two crushing defeats. And Murray of Westgate Superbook said Rousey’s loss to Holm resulted from a poor strategy and Nunez turned out to be unbeatable at that point in her career.

But Murray also added, “It’s possible that none of it matters at all because these (women) haven’t fought in 10 years.”