Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton will consider personnel changes on offense to get to the bottom of the unit’s exceedingly slow starts of late, but not the play-calling.
Payton has been under fire from fans for perceived incompetence as a play-caller. The Broncos’ being among the NFL’s leaders in screen passes doesn’t help, nor does the apparent run/pass imbalance, but he confirmed on Monday via conference call that he will continue being the guy sending in the plays to Bo Nix.
“No. I think we’re comfortable as an offensive staff of how we’re operating,” Payton said.
The issue perhaps wouldn’t be so hot-button if Broncos fans didn’t know that Payton allowed offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi and pass game coordinator Davis Webb to call plays in preseason Games 1 and 2, respectively.
The Broncos’ offense looked capable in the first preseason game under Lombardi’s play-calling, but Webb’s shot at the microphone transmitter resulted in an offensive explosion in the second exhibition game, with backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham producing like a world-beater.
However, Broncos Country wouldn’t be clamoring for the grass-is-greener options beyond Payton if the offense were even modestly consistent. The Broncos have been anything but through seven games, ranking 11th in yards per game, 17th in points, sixth in rushing, 15th in passing, 23rd on third down, and sixth in red-zone efficiency.
Now, credit to Nix and company for their grit and willpower to battle back in each of the past three games to win. Sunday’s 33-32 comeback win over the New York Giants was as electric as it was improbable. But the Broncos can’t live off 2% win probabilities as an offense.
Something’s got to change, and Payton knows it. He doesn’t believe the Broncos’ play-calling system, at the moment, requires shaking things up.
To his credit, Payton is considered one of the NFL’s brightest offensive minds of the past decade, but despite having a burgeoning young franchise quarterback, a top-five offensive line, and upgrades at running back, the Broncos’ offense has been predictable and uninspired.
Payton pointed to the personnel as the primary culprit — not himself, the play-caller.
“I think you start with who. Who is it we’re asking to do certain things from a personnel standpoint?” Payton queried on Monday. “There may be some guys [whose] playing time goes up, and some might begin to diminish. You look closely at the personnel, then you look at the scheme and does it fit us? There’s a lot to that question, but it’s a good question.”
Payton will closely examine the scheme, so long as it’s within the strictures of evaluating whether the personnel fit it. If and where the personnel don’t fit, the scheme won’t change; the player(s) will.
To many Broncos fans, it sounds like a cop-out. However, it’s safe to say that Payton knows what he’s doing. That’s part of what makes this so frustrating and confounding.
Beyond all of his accomplishments in New Orleans with Drew Brees as his quarterback for a decade-plus, it’s important to remember that Payton’s Broncos finished as a top-10 offense in 2024 with a rookie under center. The running game was middling, but Nix turned in one of the most prolific rookie seasons in the history of NFL quarterbacks.
That doesn’t happen by chance or osmosis. Payton is an expert in his field, but even so, we have to question things like telegraphing screen passes, putting Nix in the shotgun with the ball on the Broncos’ own 2-yard line, and the run/pass imbalance really getting out of whack.
Payton isn’t perfect, and if you could catch him in the right candid mood, he’d acknowledge that. After all, he’s the one who infamously wrote ‘RUN IT!!!‘ on the back of his play sheet last season. A self-reminder to keep the run game balanced throughout a contest.
It may be true that the Broncos’ personnel currently isn’t the collection of players best suited to executing Payton’s vision. Rookie Pat Bryant brings a lot as a run blocker, but he’s been unreliable of late, uncharacteristically dropping passes.
Based on snap count, Bryant is competing with Marvin Mims Jr. as the No. 3 receiver. But it’s not coming out in the wash for the rookie as a pass-catcher. Meanwhile, Mims has been relegated to a gadget weapon, despite coming through in the clutch as a down-the-field receiver in the Broncos’ wild Week 7 comeback.
Payton has to ask himself why Bryant is getting such a significant share of the snaps when it’s not translating to production in the pass game. Beyond the receivers, tight end has to also come under severe scrutiny.
Evan Engram is exactly what the Broncos expected as a receiver, but his blocking leaves much to be desired. Based on his usage, though, it’s probably not bad enough to eclipse what he brings to the table as a pass-catcher.
Adam Trautman has been consistently utilized as the Broncos’ No. 2 tight end, but his primary role of blocking in 12 personnel sets has been woeful. There’s a reason Nate Adkins has consistently eaten into Trautman’s snap share since he returned from injured reserve. Perhaps Trautman is one of those guys whose role could be “begin to diminish.”
At running back, Tyler Badie may have eclipsed RJ Harvey as the No. 2, although it’s important to remember that the rookie garnered four carries in Week 7 vs. the Giants and produced zero yards. Balancing the running back rotation behind the clear No. 1 — J.K. Dobbins — could be helpful, but it doesn’t seem like it’s the most glaring issue.
Dobbins is clearly the most reliable ball-carrier at this point, while Harvey has been utilized as a pass-catcher out of the backfield a lot, but mostly in the screen game where Nix swings the ball out to him horizontally. Badie didn’t carry the ball vs. the Giants, but he caught two passes for 19 yards, and seems well placed as the traditional screen guy who pops out of pass protection to catch it vertically, and explode downhill with leading blockers.
The best five guys are already starting on the offensive line, with the exception of Ben Powers at left guard, but that’s because of injury. Alex Palczewski started at left guard last week and played very well.
There’s a plausible argument to supplanting center Luke Wattenberg with Alex Forsyth, but if the Broncos haven’t pulled the trigger on that seven games in, they’re unlikely to ever do it this season, barring injury.
What other personnel options could the Broncos avail themselves of? Other than the Bryant/Mims and Trautman/Adkins questions, it’s hard to see an obvious solution.
Payton’s focus might not be so much on snap or touch shares, but what role a specific player has on a given play-call. He might be asking Bryant, say, to be the No. 3 receiver on a given possession because the play-call sequence favors a specific run-first approach, but when the Broncos are forced into more obvious passing sequences in the same drive, perhaps Mims needs to be more frequently rotated in to capitalize on the design.
The truth is, Payton needs to be better and so does the execution around him. The Broncos dropped five passes vs. the Giants, many of which were early in the game that absolutely killed drives.
Drops aren’t a scheme issue; they fall at the feet of the player. However, the coaches may need to focus more on hands technique during the week of practice. Something has to change there because Nix has to be able to rely on his receivers throughout a game, not just the fourth quarter.
Nix isn’t about to be replaced at quarterback, but he needs to improve, too. The tipped passes, in particular, have been problematic of late. Arm angles and pass timing must be examined.
Is he holding onto the ball too long, allowing rushers to get too close? Is he not being disciplined with his eyes, making it too easy for rushers to read him?
These are questions the Broncos have to answer on the hoof. The Dallas Cowboys are coming to Denver this week, and with how leaky the Broncos’ defense was vs. the Giants, Nix and company are going to have to put up some points throughout the game.
As good as the Cowboys are offensively, their defense is equally bad, offering a great opportunity for Nix and company to attack early. Relying on statistically improbable comebacks and fourth quarter histrionics does not an offense make.
