- Governor: Hochul 54% Blakeman 40% (September: Hochul 50-41%)
- NYS Attorney General: James 54% Komatireddy 39% (Sept.: 52-39%)
- State Comptroller: DiNapoli 59% Hernandez 32% (Sept.: 56-33%)
- Congressional Ballot: Democrat 54% Republican 39% (Sept.: 51-40%)
- A Majority of Voters – For the First Time Ever – Views Hochul Favorably, 51-45%
- More than 2/3 of Voters – Including 40% of Republicans – Think Hochul Will Win
Loudonville, NY. Governor Kathy Hochul (D) has widened her lead over Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman (R) to 54-40%, up from 50-41% in September, according to a new Siena Poll of likely New York State voters released today. For the first time, a majority of voters, 51-45%, views Hochul favorably. By a 68-23% margin, voters think Hochul will win the election, including 40% of Republicans.
In the two other statewide races, Democratic incumbents have double-digit leads. Attorney General Letitia James leads Republican Saritha Komatireddy, 54-39%, up slightly from 52-39% in September, and Comptroller Tom DiNapoli leads the GOP’s Joseph Hernandez 59-32%, up a little from 56-33% last month. Democrats also extended their lead in the generic congressional ballot and now lead 54-39%, from 51-40% in September.
“Heading into the final stretch, Hochul has a 14-point lead, with Blakeman quickly running out of time to close a gap that is growing rather than narrowing,” Siena pollster Steven Greenberg said. “And here’s the bottom line: for Republicans to win statewide, they must win convincingly upstate and in the downstate suburbs to offset the Democratic tsunami that is New York City, and they must win independents by a significant margin to offset Democrats’ two-to-one enrollment advantage. But with only a week to go, Blakeman and Hochul are running virtually evenly upstate and in the downstate suburbs, while Hochul has an 11-point lead with independents.
“Hochul leads among women by 23 points and also among men by six points,” Greenberg said. “White voters are closely divided, however, Hochul leads among Latinos better than two-to-one, and with Black voters, 81-16%.”
Hochul’s favorability rating is 51-45%, up a little from 48-46% in September. Her job approval rating also ticked up this month, to 51-46%, from 48-47%. Blakeman’s favorability rating, 39-40%, compares to 35-34% last month.
“We’ve often noted that never once in her five years as governor has Hochul’s favorable rating hit 50% in a state where 48% of voters are her fellow Democrats. We will note that no longer as 51% of likely voters now view Hochul favorably, and 51% approve of the job she’s doing as governor,” Greenberg said. “While Blakeman has become more well known to more voters over the course of the campaign, voters are closely divided, with 39% viewing him favorably and 40% viewing him unfavorably.
“Three in 10 voters, including 51% of Democrats, think Hochul, if elected, will make life more affordable for average New Yorkers, while 27%, including 60% of Republicans, say Blakeman will make life more affordable if he’s elected,” Greenberg said. “A plurality of voters, 35%, including 45% of independents, say neither candidate would make life more affordable for average New Yorkers,” Greenberg said.
“When does prediction become reality? While Hochul leads Blakeman by 14 points, voters overwhelmingly think Hochul will win, 68-23%,” Greenberg said. “Even Republicans are not strongly convinced their candidate will win, as 49% think Blakeman will win but 40% of GOP voters say that Hochul will win re-election.”
DiNapoli Has Commanding 27-Point Lead over Hernandez; James Leads Komatireddy by 15 Points
DiNapoli has a 47-16% favorability rating, up from 41-18% last month. Hernandez’s favorability rating is 21-13-66%, compared to 16-9-74% in September. James’ favorability rating is 51-39%, little changed from 51-40% last month. Komatireddy has a 26-15-59% favorability rating, up from 17-12-71% in September.
“DiNapoli, the least known statewide official, got more votes than any other candidate in New York in 2014, 2018 and 2022. Unless something dramatic happens in the final week – virtually unheard of in a down-ballot race – he appears to be headed toward an easy victory over Hernandez, and leading the ballot again,” Greenberg said. “While James does not have a DiNapoli-sized lead, she appears poised to be comfortably re-elected, with the support of 87% of Democrats and leading among independents 50-40%. Komatireddy must overcome a 70-22% deficit in New York City, made more difficult as she also trails in the downstate suburbs, 50-44%.”
Democrats Extend Lead to 15 Points in Congressional Generic Ballot
“Democrats have a 54-39% lead over Republicans in the generic congressional ballot, up from 51-40% last month,” Greenberg said. “While this is not a harbinger of what’s to come in any particular congressional district, it does signal that overall, New York voters, including independents by a 50-36% margin, prefer an unnamed Democrat over an unnamed Republican for election to the House,” Greenberg said.
Odds & Ends
- ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) continues to be viewed unfavorably, 37-60%. That is an improvement for ICE compared to January’s 28-67% favorability rating. By a 60-37% margin, voters oppose the way ICE is working, little changed from 36-60% in August. A majority, 62%, say ICE’s tactics have gone too far, 11% say they haven’t gone far enough and 24% say ICE’s tactics are about right, little changed from 63-12-24% in August.
- Voters say the state is headed in the wrong direction (not the right track) 49-41%, slightly improved from 49-38% last month. By a 66-27% margin, voters say the country is headed in the wrong direction, virtually unchanged from 66-28% in September.
- President Donald Trump has a 36-61% favorability rating, up a little from 34-63% in September. His job approval rating stands at 37-62%, also up a little from 35-62% last month.
- Zohran Mamdani’s favorability rating is 47-43%. It was 46-44% last month. He is popular with Democrats, 75-16%, and is better than two-to-one favorable in New York City, 69-28%, up from 60-31% last month.
- By 48-28%, voters say Trump’s endorsement of Blakeman has been a negative for that campaign (51-30% last month), and Mamdani’s endorsement of Hochul has been a positive for her campaign, 45-30% (50-30% in September).
Methodology
This Siena Poll was conducted October 19-22, 2026, among 807 New York Likely Voters. Of the 807 respondents, 494 were contacted through a dual frame (landline and cell phone) mode (313 completed via text to web). Telephone calls were conducted in English and respondent sampling was initiated by asking for the voter listed on the voter file by name. Telephone sampling was conducted via a stratified dual frame probability sample of landline and cell phone telephone numbers weighted to reflect known population patterns. The landline telephone sample and the cell phone sample was obtained from L2 Voter Database. Duplicate responses are identified by their response ID and removed from the sample. Coding of open-ended responses was done by a single human coder. Data from collection modes were weighted to balance sample demographics to match estimates for New York’s population using data from the state voter file, on age, region, race/ethnicity, education, party identification, a combined measure of stated and derived vote likelihood, and gender to ensure representativeness. It has an overall margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points including the design effects resulting from weighting. Sampling error is only one of many potential sources of error and there may be other unmeasured error in this or any other public opinion poll. The Siena Research Institute (SRI) powered by ReconMR is directed by Donald Levy, Ph.D.. SRI conducts political, economic, social, and cultural research primarily in NYS. SRI, an independent, non-partisan research institute, subscribes to the American Association of Public Opinion Research Code of Professional Ethics and Practices.
For more information, call Steve Greenberg at (518) 469-9858.
For survey crosstabs: www.Siena.edu/SRI/SNY.
