Sunday Model Predictions (May 26)

There was no MLB NRFI article for Saturday, but the picks I shared in the Action Network Discord went 2-1, with the loss coming on a half-unit bet for a profit of 1.5 units.

I have three MLB NRFI picks and model predictions for Sunday, May 26.

MLB NRFI Picks: Sunday Model Predictions (May 26)

Starting Pitchers: Chris Sale vs. Martin Perez

I’m a little nervous about this pick given the strength of the Braves lineup, but I’m trusting my model here. The projection is based on very strong first time through-the-order splits for Perez, who has a 1.19 ERA and 3.50 xFIP early in games, both far stronger than his overall numbers.

Given that we aren’t too worried about Pittsburgh against Chris Sale, who’s been elite both early and overall this season, this is a decent price for a game with only one team we’re worried about.

Starting Pitchers: Logan Webb vs. Sean Manaea

I was hoping for a better price on this game, but my model has the fair value around -155 so I guess I shouldn’t be surprised.

The game has a 7.5-run total, and two starting pitchers who are solid overall but even better early in games. Webb has an ERA of 1.90 his first time through the order, while Manaea sits at 2.33.

Those are elite numbers, and these aren’t elite offenses, so the NRFI is a solid play.

Starting Pitchers: Javier Assad vs. Sonny Gray

This game has an eight-run total, but I expect the majority of the runs to come later in the game. Both starting pitchers are having solid seasons overall, but do even better their first time through the order.

They both have sub-2.00 first time through the order ERAs, to go with xFIP numbers well below their full-game marks. In addition, between the two teams they have just one hitter projected in the top-three of either lineup with a wRC+ over 120, so it’s not like there’s superstar bats to worry about.

Caesars is offering the same price on a first inning tie as on the regular NRFI, which is clearly a better bet thanks to the slight chance of a tie score other than 0-0, so be sure to shop all the prices before making the pick.

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