After making significant inroads with Latino voters in Texas, some believe Republicans may see that advantage dwindle in 2026.
In the last election cycle, President Trump captured an estimated 55% of Latino votes in Texas, a 13-point increase over 2020. In fact, Republicans were so confident of their appeal to Latinos, that they drew more majority-Hispanic districts during the party’s recent partisan redistricting efforts.
But there are signs that conditions on the ground have changed, writes Asher Price at Axios, where he is a political correspondent. Listen to the interview above or read the transcript below.
This transcript has been edited lightly for clarity:
Texas Standard: Republicans in Texas came out of that 2024 election cycle feeling pretty jubilant about their gains with Latino voters. What do you see as changing on the ground since then?
Asher Price: As you said, Trump did really well among Texas Latinos and Gov. Abbott had built up big Republican infrastructure in South Texas, especially over the last half decade or so.
But coming into a year in the second Trump administration, the economy has been dicey and polling has suggested that Latinos across the country are unhappy with the direction of the country and of the economy. And we’ve also seen some election results in other parts of the country that suggest some some shift back toward Democrats among Latinos.
Pew Research Center ran a poll they released last month of Latinos nationally and found that about four in five Latinos say that President Trump’s policies harm Hispanics – which is a higher share than during his first term.
So these are these are kind of indicators that that things may not go as well as planned for Republicans and among Latinos in Texas.
About that Pew research, did they break down what policies in particular aren’t working for Republicans? What policies of the Trump administration? Or no?
Yeah, well they said that about half of Latinos have said that they have struggled to afford food, housing, or medical care in the past year, which I think is a very important point because, I mean, we’re seeing that affordability issue across the electorate.
But this is especially salient for Latino voters who may tend to be working class or middle class and may be more sensitive to cost-of-living issues.
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What about immigration? How much does that seem to make a dent?
I think the Pew folks said that close to 60% of Latino adults had reported seeing or hearing immigration raids in their community. Certainly immigration is a big deal and it’s on Telemundo or Univision.
If you’re watching news in the Spanish language, even if it’s not happening in your community, you’re seeing reports from other parts of the country, which again is important here in Texas where there haven’t been the kind of ICE raids that have been as prominent as in places like New York, Chicago or Los Angeles. But those may still be being beamed into your television set.
Last week President Trump pardoned Laredo Congressman Henry Cuellar, a Democrat who’d been indicted on bribery and money laundering charges. And then on Sunday, the president turned around and accused Cuellar of being disloyal because he announced he planned to run as a Democrat in the upcoming midterms.
What are you hearing? What’s your sense, Asher? Is Cuellar favored to keep his seat? Is this one that Republicans were counting on?
Yeah, it’s one of the five seats that Republicans were hoping to flip in 2026. But Henry Cuellar is a political survivor. He knows those constituents down there, and as embattled as he is, if anyone can hold on to that district, it’s Cuellar.
What are experts saying about any chance of Republicans turning things around if indeed things are not working out for them as they saw them earlier?
Well, two quick points here. One is that the Republicans were hoping to pick up five congressional seats with this redistricting. They may pick up only three, partly because South Texas Democrats have been quite resilient – Vicente Gonzalez and Henry Cuellar.
The other point here is a lot depends on the state of the economy and cost of living come October, November of next year. In other words, on Election Day, what’s the perception of voters about whether the price of milk is gone up, whether the cost of gasoline is, you know…
So these are the sorts of things that will really make or break how many congressional seats Republicans win in Texas in 2026.
