Across the country, political analysts are increasingly describing Latinos as America’s new swing vote. Much of the attention has focused on changing political preferences and which party will receive the Latino vote. But this discussion overlooks important changes taking place in Latino communities, particularly their growing economic influence.
In Chicago, the evidence is clear.
The recently released “Latino Chicago and the Future of the City” report, produced by the University of Illinois Chicago’s Great Cities Institute in partnership with the Illinois Legislative Latino Caucus Foundation, documents significant economic changes across Latino communities here at home in Chicago. They are a reflection of us on a national level and what it will mean for the future of politics in Chicago, Illinois and our nation.
Nearly one-third of Latino households now earn $100,000 or more annually, up from approximately one-fifth a decade earlier. The share of Latino adults with a bachelor’s degree or higher has also increased from 12.6% to 20.4%. These changes point to a growing Latino middle class, even as many families continue to face challenges related to housing costs, wages and economic opportunity.
In 2024,16 primarily Latino commercial corridors generated approximately $1.76 billion in taxable sales. These commercial districts support jobs, businesses and neighborhood economies throughout Chicago.
Yet how often are these contributions central to discussions about Chicago’s economic development? As the city and region develop strategies for growth and investment, are Latino communities receiving the attention their economic contributions warrant?
Chicago’s economic changes are occurring alongside a major demographic shift. In 1950, the city had approximately 3.1 million white residents and an estimated 53,500 Latinos. By 2020, its non-Hispanic white population stood at approximately 864,000, while its Latino population had grown to more than 819,000.
Between 2000 and the American Community Survey’s 2019 to 2023 period, Chicago lost more than 188,000 residents, while its Latino population increased by more than 48,000, reaching approximately 802,000, or nearly 30% of the city.
Chicago’s Latino population is also younger than its Black and white populations. Nearly 54% of Latinos are younger than 35, compared with 46% of Black residents and 45.4% of white residents. More than one-quarter of Latino Chicagoans are younger than 18, compared with 21.6% of Black residents and 12.5% of white residents.
These differences matter politically. As younger Latinos enter the workforce, establish households and become eligible to vote, they will account for a growing share of Chicago’s electorate.
Economic differences in Latino communities also complicate assumptions about their political preferences. A small business owner, a union worker, a young professional and a family struggling to afford housing may share cultural or community ties, but their economic circumstances and policy priorities can differ considerably. Latino voters cannot be understood as a single political constituency.
The 2024 presidential election brought these differences into sharper focus. According to the Pew Research Center, approximately 48% of Latino voters supported the current president. But that figure represents Latinos who voted, not the entire eligible Latino electorate.
According to U.S. Census Bureau data, only 50.6% of eligible Latino citizens voted in 2024, compared with 59.6% of Black citizens and 70.5% of non-Hispanic white citizens. Nearly half of eligible Latino voters did not participate.
Chicago’s experience is particularly revealing. A 2023 analysis by researchers at the UIC Great Cities Institute found that only 20.5% of registered Latino voters participated in the city’s mayoral runoff election, compared with 29% of registered Black voters and 61.1% of registered white voters. Nearly 4 out of 5 registered Latino voters did not cast a ballot.
These numbers raise an important question: What does it mean when a community represents nearly 30% of Chicago’s population, generates substantial economic activity and yet has such comparatively low electoral participation?
These changes extend beyond Chicago. More than 2 million Latinos live across Cook, DuPage, Kane, Lake, McHenry and Will counties, with nearly 1.25 million residing outside the city. The Latino electorate is growing and changing throughout metropolitan Chicago, not just within city limits.
For the Illinois Legislative Latino Caucus Foundation, these findings underscore the importance of understanding Latino communities beyond population numbers or voting preferences. Their economic circumstances are changing, their contributions are substantial and their priorities cannot be reduced to a single political identity.
Latinos are increasingly described as swing voters, but that label tells only part of the story. Chicago’s Latino communities have become a larger and more economically diverse part of the region, even as electoral participation remains comparatively low. The question is not simply which way Latinos will vote, but whether Chicago’s economic and political institutions are keeping pace with the communities helping shape its future.
Oswaldo Alvarez is executive director of the Illinois Legislative Latino Caucus Foundation.
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