Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
Here are my top two home run prop picks on DraftKings Sportsbook for Thursday’s teeny tiny slate: Junior Caminero and JJ Wetherholt.
Let’s break them down.
Best MLB Home Run Bets Today
| Best MLB Home Run Bets Today | Odds | Why I Like the Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero | +242 | Shane Bieber sports an 8.54 xERA, an 11.7% opponent barrel rate and a 53.2% opponent hard hit rate. Even after a good start this past weekend, he’s still giving up a whopping 2.66 home runs per nine. Look for Caminero and his 100th percentile bat speed (79.8) to take advantage. |
| JJ Wetherholt | +690 | LHBs have plagued Brandon Pfaadt all year long. The Diamondbacks’ RHP has conceded a .298/.348/.516 slash line to those within the split, and that includes 2.03 long balls per nine. Wetherholt, the Cardinals’ left-handed leadoff man, should get two of three cracks at Pfaadt. He’ll be looking for his second long ball in as many days, after hitting his 15th of 2026 on Wednesday. |
In-depth analysis below.
Top MLB Home Run Props Today
Junior Caminero 1+ Home Run (+242)
Shane Bieber finally had a good start his last time out, tossing six scoreless innings against the White Sox. However, even with that wonderful performance on the books, the veteran RHP still sports an 8.54 xERA, an 11.7% opponent barrel rate and a 53.2% opponent hard hit rate. He’s still giving up a whopping 2.66 home runs per nine across his 23.2 innings of work in 2026. He’s still an amazing pitcher to target in this particular market. As for Caminero, you already know the deal. The slugger is looking for his 30th long ball of the season on Thursday, an outlandish total he’s reached this quickly thanks to 100th percentile bat speed (79.8) and 96th percentile average exit velocity (93.2). Odds are someone on the Rays is going deep today. Caminero is the most obvious choice.
JJ Wetherholt 1+ Home Run (+690)
It would be impossible for Cardinals’ fans to ask more of Wetherholt in his rookie campaign, as the former seventh-overall pick has exceeded expectations at every turn. In fact, after hitting his 15th home run of the season against the Angels on Wednesday, Wetherholt now has a 113 wRC+ in his first 435 plate appearances at the MLB level. He’s also in possession of a 76th percentile expected wOBA (.349) and a 75th percentile hard hit rate (45.6%). All this on top of being arguably the most impactful defensive second baseman in the league. Not too shabby. For our purposes, it’s most crucial to note that Wetherholt is a left-handed bat. Why? Well, LHBs have plagued Brandon Pfaadt all year long. The Diamondbacks’ RHP has conceded a .298/.348/.516 slash line to those within the split, and that includes 2.03 long balls per nine. Alec Burleson (+517) is another name to consider here.
