Great news. 👍 I didn’t want it to get lost in the other post so I made a new one.
Amazing how fast things can change! 😉 1-3″ of rain is now the forecast thru Thursday.
………………
From Space City Weather:
While tropical rainfall is still bound for the greater Houston area later on Tuesday and Wednesday, we now believe the worst of it will remain south of the city.
Accordingly, Space City has lowered the flood alert to Stage 1 for the metro area, which is consistent with street flooding.
Flooding Threat To Houston Lessens As Tropical System Develops In Southern Gulf
Eric Berger · Tuesday, June 18, 2024 6:44 AM
In brief:
*While tropical rainfall is still bound for the greater Houston area later on Tuesday and Wednesday, we now believe the worst of it will remain south of the city.
*Accordingly, we have lowered our flood alert to Stage 1 for the metro area, which is consistent with street flooding.
*As a tropical system in the southern Gulf of Mexico has gotten slightly better organized during the last day or so, we’ve been able to observe its rain bands in real time. This has given us confidence in our forecast for heavy rainfall potential in Houston, and changes in model trends during that time.
*The bottom line is that we now believe the threat of widespread, tropical rains in Houston has lessened. For this reason we are lowering our flooding alert to Stage 1, which remains in effect through Wednesday.
*We are now confident that the worst of the system’s rains will go south of the Houston area, perhaps near Matagorda Bay and likely in the Corpus Christi area over the next couple of days. (We’ll be continuing to provide information about this threat to Texas on our companion site, The Eyewall).
*That’s not to say the Houston area will not see rain, it’s just that we no longer expect the potential for 6 to 10 inches across widespread areas. Rather, while there may be some isolated, significant flooding, for the most part things look manageable.
*In terms of timing, this morning looks fairly calm, and I expect the radar to remain mostly quiet through around noon.
*However, from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon, I do expect storm like conditions to develop.
Here’s what we can expect in the Houston region in terms of rain, winds, and seas.
RAINFALL
*For areas along and north of Interstate 10, accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are likely, with higher isolated totals.
*For locations further south, accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are likely, with higher bullseyes.
*The areas of greatest concern are southern Brazoria County and points further south, closer to Matagorda Bay. Overall, the risk remains the threat of high rainfall rates due to the nature of tropical moisture.
Again, just to underscore this, I don’t think we’ll see widespread flooding in Houston over the next day or two. However, you should be prepared for some disruptions on roadways.
WINDS
*Starting later this morning winds will increase from the east to about 20 mph, and gusting up to 30 mph.
*These winds will be even stronger along the coast, and south of Houston, where some gusts may reach up to 40 mph.
*These strong winds will likely persist through much of Thursday.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
*Our atmosphere will remain somewhat unsettled toward the end of the week, and each day will have a decent chance of showers but the threat of consistently heavy rain should be over by Thursday.
*Skies will be partly sunny on both days, with highs of around 90 degrees.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
*Rain chances won’t entirely go away this weekend, but they’ll be lower each day, likely on the order of 20 percent or so.
*We’ll also see mostly sunny skies, pushing highs into the low 90s at least.
NEXT WEEK
*Overall, next week should looks fairly typical for late June. I think we’ll see highs in the low- to mid-90s, with at least some low-end potential for rain each day. I’m not expecting anything too organized, but sea breeze showers may definitely be a thing.
We’ll see.
Our next update will come later this afternoon.
spacecityweather.com /flooding-threat-to- houston-lessens-as-t ropical-system-
