One of my favorite posts of every year is the annual prediction contest, in which I give you 10 simple questions about how the upcoming season will go, and you get them wrong.
I love that for us, for two reasons. First, it helps me feel better about all of my own bad predictions. (The New Jersey Devils: maybe not elite Stanley Cup contenders after all.) But more importantly, it’s a way to remind us all just how unpredictable the NHL has become. It’s easy to look back at any given season after it’s over and shrug about how nothing was all that surprising. That gets a little tougher when you have over a thousand fans putting their predictions on the public record.
Will this season be another collective swing-and-miss? Probably, although we’re not there yet. But now that we’ve crossed the halfway point of the season, it feels like a good time to check in and see how we’re doing.
If you’re not sure what any of this is about, you can get up to speed on the original contest post here. Some first impressions from this year’s entries can be found here. But now that we have some actual road in the rearview mirror, let’s see how it’s going.
1. Name up to five teams that will make the playoffs.
We can start with some good news: You guys look like you did a reasonably solid job of picking playoff teams.
There was a clear big five here, with Dallas, Carolina, Vegas, Edmonton and Colorado all showing up on over 80 percent of entries. The Oilers and Knights have both been on bumpy roads so far, but neither seems to be in serious danger of missing the postseason in a surprisingly weak Pacific. Your sixth most common pick was the Lightning, who also look like a safe choice, so you’re in good shape here.
(It’s worth pointing out that that list of teams is in order, meaning the historically dominant Avalanche were just your fifth-most mentioned team, which is interesting. But you’re not looking for style points here, so there’s no penalty for thinking the Oilers were a safer bet as long as everyone makes it.)
We don’t get into the danger zone until we hit the rest of the top 10. Your picks there, in order, were the Leafs, Panthers, Jets and Devils, all of whom have been outside the playoff picture for most of the first half. The Leafs have turned things around, and there’s still time for any of them to rally. There won’t be room for all of them, especially in the East, so there will be some misses here. But overall, most of you are in good shape.
Nice work, everyone. We just need to keep this up for nine more questions.
2. Name up to five teams that will not make the playoffs.
Uh oh!
The top two picks here were nearly unanimous, with just about everyone picking Chicago and San Jose as obvious playoff misses. Both might end up being correct answers, but they’re making you sweat.
The Sharks are holding down a wild-card spot in the Western Conference. (Robert Edwards / Imagn Images)
It gets worse. After that, you had the Penguins, Kraken and Flyers, all of whom have been holding down spots for most of the season. Again, there’s plenty of time for teams to fade, but it’s not looking great. And your next five teams — the Predators, Sabres, Bruins, Islanders and Ducks — are all hovering around the race too.
Somehow, we don’t get to a playoff miss that feels safe until your 11th- and 12th-most mentioned teams, which were the Flames and Blue Jackets. You had Vancouver 15th, just behind the Red Wings. Only three of you mentioned the Senators. Just two had the Rangers. Just one had the Blues. And the only entry to mention the Leafs or Panthers was Daniel G., which is kind of impressive until you realize he just got his answers for the first two questions mixed up.
In other words: Anyone who tells you they saw the bottom of the standings shaking out this way is lying. None of us did.
3. Name up to five teams that will finish in the middle 16 of the regular-season standings (i.e., between 9th and 24th).
This one’s tough to call right now, because the NHL’s mushy middle has never been mushier than it is this year. You could even make the case that just about everyone other than the Avalanche is still in the running to finish somewhere in the middle-16 range.
That said, it’s not looking great for you so far. Your most common pick here was Utah, sitting 21st heading into last night’s action. But next up was St. Louis, on pace to finish well below the middle window. Then came Montreal, who are too high, and then the Senators, who are trending low. Detroit is up next and is above pace, and then you have Vancouver, Calgary and Columbus. You get the picture.
While we’re here, a note about the Jets: Of all 32 teams, they were the one you mentioned the least across the first three questions. In other words, you had the least confidence in predicting their season of any team. That seemed weird in October, given Winnipeg was coming off a Presidents’ Trophy-winning season. Murat and I tried to figure that one out in the newsletter, but in hindsight, you were right to be nervous. While not a single entry listed the Jets as a team likely to miss the playoffs, the fact that you collectively steered clear of the team that may end the season with the biggest standings plunge in the history of the league counts as a smart call in my book.
4. Name up to five coaches who will not be fired or otherwise leave their jobs before July 1, 2026.
5. Name up to five GMs who will not be fired or otherwise leave their job before July 1, 2026.
There’s not much to say here, given we only just now had our first coaching change, and only one GM has been sent packing. That GM would be Kevyn Adams, who appeared on only 10 entries, which felt like 10 too many. Dean Evason was a bigger surprise, but he was only the 11th safest coach according to your entries, so maybe you saw that one coming, too. Otherwise, you’re all safe so far, assuming you didn’t pick one of the many recent hires who were ineligible. (You probably did.)
Among the most-mentioned names over the course of the season, most seem safe barring something unexpected. Craig Berube was seventh on your list of cold-seated coaches, Sheldon Keefe was 10th and Scott Arniel was 12th. On the GM side, names such as Tom Fitzgerald, Brad Treliving and Kevin Cheveldayoff were all outside the top 10. For the most part, you should be fine on these questions.
Not a single reader voted for Jet Greaves, who has emerged as a bona fide starter for the Columbus Blue Jackets. (Aaron Doster / Imagn Images)
6. Name up to five goaltenders who will start at least 50 games this season.
Connor Hellebuyck was a near-unanimous pick here, so his injury was potentially catastrophic for the contest (and apparently also for the Jets). He could actually still get to 50 starts, depending on how hard the Jets ride him down the stretch. But with the season slipping away and the Olympics still on his to-do list, this one feels dangerous.
Beyond that pick, you’re probably safe with other consensus picks such as Jake Oettinger and Ilya Sorokin, although Andrei Vasilevskiy and Igor Shesterkin could be dicey due to injury. Meanwhile, Sam Montembeault was your ninth safest pick, and he’s likely to miss based on performance.
It’s also worth pointing out some of the goalies you didn’t have confidence in. Spencer Knight, Logan Thompson and Yaroslav Askarov all finished with single-digit support, while Jet Greaves didn’t get a single mention. Keep that in mind when someone inevitably tells you we all saw those seasons coming.
7. Name up to five rookies who will finish in the top 10 of Calder Trophy balloting.
This one’s tough to call at the midseason mark, since many rookies don’t come on until the second half. Your top two picks were Ivan Demidov and Zeev Buium, who both feel safe. We don’t hit a true long shot until we get to your sixth most common pick: Michael Misa, who’s played just eight games for the Sharks so far.
But the big story here is the name we haven’t mentioned yet: Matthew Schaefer, who enters the second half as the heavy Calder favorite and feels like a lock to at least be a finalist. Despite being the No. 1 pick, he was only named on 252 entries, placing him seventh in your overall confidence ratings.
Meanwhile, Jesper Wallstedt is right in the race despite only being mentioned by two of you.
8. Name up to five defensemen who will finish in the top 10 of Norris Trophy balloting.
Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes were near-unanimous picks and should be safe bets. Same with your next few picks, which included Rasmus Dahlin, Zach Werenski and Miro Heiskanen. Your sixth pick could be trouble, though, as over 200 of you felt confident in Adam Fox, who’s been OK for the Rangers but just got snubbed for Team USA and put on long-term injured reserve to boot.
On the other side, only 17 of you named Moritz Seider, who could be emerging as a front-runner. Not surprisingly, nobody had emerging first-half story J.J. Moser, and we probably would have rejected your entry as spam if you did. But impressively, one of you did name Matthew Schaefer — that would be Jonas S., who went with an interesting entry of Schaefer, Werenski, and nobody else.
9. Name up to five players who will finish in the top 15 of Hart Trophy voting.
Your big four were Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, Nikita Kucherov and Leon Draisaitl, in that order, and all four are safely in play. Your next pick was Auston Matthews, and his case looked extremely shaky up until the last few weeks; he’ll need a strong second half to save the nearly 400 of you who had him on your entry.
The bigger story here has been the league’s youth movement, which your entries suggest you didn’t see coming. Macklin Celebrini is the big one here, emerging as a genuine Hart contender in just his second season. Only six of you saw that one coming, putting Celebrini in the same single-digit category as names such as Robert Thomas, Sam Bennett, Andrei Svechnikov and Linus Ullmark.
Macklin Celebrini has 70 points in 45 games for the Sharks this season. (Luke Hales / Getty Images)
10. Name up to five players from the NHL who will score at least one goal in the Olympics this year.
Not a single player on any of your entries has been proven right so far. You fools!
OK, there’s not much we can do with this one until the Olympics actually happen. But I will point out that only three of you listed Jason Robertson, while just one had Cole Caufield. The only conclusion here is that you all love Bill Guerin and he is completely vindicated.
And finally, the big one …
Bonus: For 15 bonus points, name one and only one player who will finish this season with at least 45 goals, and who is not Auston Matthews or Leon Draisaitl.
The dreaded all-or-nothing bonus question has been a contest staple for the last few years, and last season marked the first time that somebody who skipped it managed to win. I wondered if that might dissuade you from trying it, but over 60 percent of you still went all in.
You might be regretting that. Among those that risked it, the most common answer was Connor McDavid, and he’s on track to be a safe pick. But your next pick was David Pastrnak, who’ll need to pick up his pace in the second half. Next came Kirill Kaprizov, who’s on pace but without a ton of room to spare. And after that came Tage Thompson, who’ll need to heat up to save some of you.
The most interesting name here is Nathan MacKinnon, who’s spent the season threatening to run away with the goals title. He was named on just 26 entries, putting him one behind Brayden Point, who had just 11 goals before getting hurt the other night.
Among other names on pace to hit the 45-goal mark, only seven of you had Jason Robertson, which was seven times more than the one entry each that named Matt Boldy and Morgan Geekie. And nobody had Wyatt Johnston, Alex DeBrincat or Tyler Bertuzzi, meaning they all finished behind names such as Pavel Dorofeyev and Jordan Kyrou. (Not to mention Draisaitl and Matthews, who both got mentions from people who didn’t read the entire question.)
