When the Denver Broncos re-signed running back J.K. Dobbins, it raised some eyebrows around the NFL. It wasn’t so much that Denver brought him back, but rather, the contract details that had people questioning the decision.
The Broncos gave Dobbins a two-year, $16 million contract, with $8 million guaranteed. It’s essentially a one-year deal — though it came with a 4x raise — with an option after 2026.
I lauded the decision. And for what it’s worth, I didn’t bat an eye at the raise Dobbins got, especially in comparison to the $14 and $13 million per year that Kansas City gave Kenneth Walker III and Travis Etienne, respectively.
Pro Football Focus‘ Zoltán Buday believes the contract size was too risky, and for all the same, familiar reasons: availability. Buday classified the Dobbins deal as his “least favorite” free-agent move the Broncos made, which beggars belief considering the Adam Trautman deal.
“Talent has never really been an issue for Dobbins. The Ohio State product finished the 2025 season with an 80.8 PFF rushing grade, which was his highest mark since his rookie campaign and ranked 18th among 53 running backs,” Buday wrote.
“However, his 341 snaps ranked just 45th at the position. Similarly, Dobbins has logged only 905 snaps over the past three seasons, which also ranks 45th. The size of this contract is a risk, considering Dobbins’s tendency to miss time with injuries.”
Why Dobbins is Worth the Risk
Buday’s concern is fair and well-founded. The question is, if the vast majority of NFL pundits viewed the Dobbins move as risky and likely to blow up in Denver’s face, why did GM George Paton do it?
This is a very important question to understand the Broncos’ 2026 vision. The answer is complex, but the two primary reasons the Broncos were willing to look past Dobbins’s injury concerns to give him $8 million per year (up over the $2 million he got last season) are as follows:
- Impact when healthy
- Belief they can keep him healthy
The simple truth is that when Dobbins was healthy (10 games), he gave the Broncos rushing production that ranked in the top five among individual running backs. He was one of the best, most efficient, and productive backs in the entire NFL, and he’s always been that guy — when he’s on the field.
Beyond the on-field impact, what Dobbins brought to the table as a leader, a mentor, and a tone-setter was exceedingly valuable to the Broncos.
Dobbins was the missing sauce that gave Denver’s young offense — helmed by a second-year quarterback — some serious swagger and self-belief. I won’t give Dobbins all the credit for the Broncos’ penchant for persevering in one-score games and coming from behind to beat some heavy hitters, but he played a major role.
When it comes to his health, the Broncos believe that, with a full offseason in their elite player wellness/strength and conditioning program, Dobbins’s injury luck will finally turn. He calls it “unfortunate,” like some cloud that has followed him around his whole career, but he’s doing everything he can to speak health into existence and his putting in the offseason work at Broncos HQ to manifest it thusly.
“So I’m excited. I really am. Because, call it what it is, I got hurt. I missed the last seven games of the regular season,” Dobbins told NFL Network recently. “I’m gonna be fresh, and I’m gonna be pissed off because I’m tired of the unfortunate stuff. And I know that I can do it. It’s gonna happen this year.”
You’ve got to love the mindset, but if the best predictor of future outcomes is past outcomes, then we can expect Dobbins to miss some time. However, the investment the Broncos have made in him will yield a commensurate return, so long as the time he misses isn’t significant.
The key is avoiding the type of major injuries that would land Dobbins on injured reserve. But at the end of the day, it’s football. Guys get hurt, they play hurt, and that’s the way the cookie crumbles, especially for running backs.
The Broncos understand that. The Dobbins deal is about all the little things he brings to the table that make the team so much better.
The Takeaway
Considering everything Dobbins offers the Broncos — the tangible and intangible — I wouldn’t lose one wink of sleep if I were George Paton or Sean Payton. But I would strive to improve my slumber even more by hedging just a little, and drafting a running back next month who could step in as that first and second-down grinder to keep the rushing offense efficient if/when Dobbins misses time.
RJ Harvey proved from Week 11 on last season that he’s not quite that guy… yet. He might mature into such a ball-carrier, but the Broncos can’t count on it right away.
That’s why targeting a back like Arkansas’ Mike Washington Jr., Notre Dame’s Jadarian Price, or Washington’s Jonah Coleman would be exceedingly wise in the second round.
