Where ESPN experts predict Warriors, Kings will finish 2026-27 NBA season originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area
ESPN’s latest projections have both Northern California NBA franchises staring up at the rest of the Western Conference — for very different reasons.
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The outlet’s experts, in their preseason forecast, have the Warriors finishing the 2026-27 NBA regular season with a 35-47 record as the West’s No. 9 seed, securing a play-in tournament spot for a fourth straight year. The Kings fared much worse, projected dead last in the conference at 19-63 as a rebuild takes full shape in Sacramento.
The Warriors’ outlook hinges almost entirely on health. Golden State missed out on LeBron James this summer despite Draymond Green opting out of his own contract to help create the flexibility to pursue him, leaving the roster largely unchanged from a team that finished 37-45 and lost in the play-in tournament a year ago.
Jimmy Butler, who tore his right ACL in January, remains the single biggest swing factor for the season, while Moses Moody‘s own season-ending knee injury only has added to the uncertainty on the wing.
The one genuine bright spot has been rookie Yaxel Lendeborg. The No. 11 overall pick was named 2026 Summer League MVP after averaging 14.8 points, 6.8 rebounds and four assists across six games, capped by a 21-point, 10-rebound performance in the championship game win over the Memphis Grizzlies — making him the first player in franchise history to win the award.
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ESPN’s Anthony Slater reported in July that Steve Kerr already has indicated Lendeborg could open the regular season in the Warriors’ starting lineup, a rare vote of confidence from a coach not typically known for rushing rookies into major roles. With Butler and Moody both out for the beginning of the season, Golden State might need exactly that kind of unexpected contribution to have any chance of exceeding a modest projection.
Sacramento has an entirely different situation. The Kings moved on from longtime veteran DeMar DeRozan this offseason and have leaned into a younger core, adding rookies Darius Acuff Jr., Alex Karaban and Emanuel Sharp through the NBA draft, while second-year players like Dylan Cardwell and Max Raynaud continue developing in the rotation.
That youth movement, paired with persistent trade speculation surrounding Domantas Sabonis and Malik Monk, has left real uncertainty over what the Kings’ actual best roster even looks like on any given night — exactly the kind of instability that tends to produce the growing pains ESPN is projecting.
Both franchises are betting heavily on internal development this season, just on different timelines.
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For the Warriors, that means hoping a rookie forward can offset injuries to two established veterans long enough for Steph Curry to make one more real push. For the Kings, it means accepting a difficult season now in exchange for a young core the front office believes can be built around for years to come.
