We’re coming up on the close of the 2024 regular season and one of the two teams featured in Saturday’s matchup between Texas Tech football and Oklahoma State has something to tangible to play for.
The Red Raiders (6-4, 4-3) probably won’t be headed to the Big 12 championship game, but an eight-win season hasn’t been achieved since 2013. And you have to go back to 2009 for the last time Texas Tech won eight games in just the regular season. Both can be achieved by as soon as Saturday evening with a win over Oklahoma State.
Oklahoma State, meanwhile, has nothing but pride on the line. The Cowboys (3-7, 0-7) have been somewhat competitive but something is very off in Boone Pickens Stadium. Has the team completely quit? The Red Raiders are hoping so.
How odd is this setup? The last time Oklahoma State was unranked when playing Texas Tech came all the way back in 2007, a span of 15-straight matchups. When the teams kick off, it’ll have been 777 days since the Red Raiders and Cowboys met on the football field. That’s the longest stretch of time between games since before the Big 12 Conference came into existence.
So who has the edge? Glad you asked.
When Texas Tech football runs the ball
Say it with me: Run the dang ball. That’s been the motto for everybody against Oklahoma State, and for good reason. The Cowboys rank second-to-last in the country (132nd overall) in rushing defense, giving up an astounding 240.8 yards per game on the ground. Texas Tech is unlikely to reach that number, topping out at 232 yards against North Texas this season, but the Red Raiders do have Tahj Brooks (1,184 yards, 11 TDs) as the bell cow back they’d have no problems handing the ball to 30 times. Brooks has already achieved the all-time rushing record at Tech, but a few more big games could end any talk that his career mark comes with an asterisks because Byron Hanspard’s number didn’t include his bowl game.
Advantage: Texas Tech
When Oklahoma State football runs the ball
This is one area that should’ve been a clear and decisive advantage for Oklahoma State before the year, but that just hasn’t been the case. Last year’s Doak Walker Award winner, Oklahoma State’s Ollie Gordon (714 yards, 10 TD), has only topped 100 yards on the ground three times this season, a far cry from his outstanding 2023 season. The Cowboys haven’t given up on the run game, but it hasn’t exactly worked. The Red Raiders have been decent in this regard with only Baylor (255) and Washington State (301) able to gash the Tech run defense, which ranks 64th in the nation.
Advantage: Texas Tech
When Texas Tech football passes the ball
Sensing a theme here? You should, because it’s another defensive deficiency for Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are a touch better defending the pass, but not by much, ranking 118th in the nation. This bodes well for Texas Tech to pick its poison and, if the Cowboys load up on stopping Brooks, letting Behren Morton (2,575 yards, 21 TDs, 6 INTs) take to the air looking for Josh Kelly (76 catches, 842 yards) and Caleb Douglas (47 catches, 610 yards). A couple milestones to watch here: Morton is looking to become Tech’s first 3,000-yard passer since Nic Shimonek in 2017 and Kelly could be the team’s first 1,000-yard receiver since Antoine Wesley in 2018.
Advantage: Texas Tech
When Oklahoma State football passes the ball
We’ve spent a lot of time saying just how bad Oklahoma State is on defense, but the Cowboys have a silver lining in this one. Texas Tech holds the same national ranking in passing defense (132nd) as Oklahoma State does in rushing (and total defense). The Cowboys also have Alan Bowman, the former Red Raider who will probably be the one player you can count on that won’t have completely quit for this game. The seventh-year (!) quarterback hasn’t been great, mostly assuming the starting job because Garret Rangel got hurt after replacing Bowman, who was benched earlier in the year. Still, Bowman is more than willing to sling it around the field, totaling 2,416 yards with 16 touchdowns. He also has talented receivers like Brennan Presley (72 catches, 670 yards) and De’Zhaun Stribling (43 catches, 749 yards) to look to. However, Bowman is very turnover prone, throwing 12 interceptions on the year and Texas Tech has shown a knack for picking off opponents, ranking among the top 27 nationally with 11 interceptions on the year. With Oklahoma State out of bowl contention, keep an eye on freshman backup QB Maealiuaki Smith to possibly see some time as well.
Advantage: Oklahoma State
Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State: The specialists
Gino Garcia finally missed a field goal in the last game against Colorado, making him a paltry 15-of-16 on the year for Texas Tech. The splitting of the kickers Tech claims its had this season hasn’t exactly come to fruition as Reese Burkhardt only has four attempts on the year. Jack Burgess is averaging 42 yards per punt this season. For Oklahoma State, Logan Ward is 12-of-16 on field goals while Hudson Kaak (42.5 yards per boot) and Wes Pahl (48.16) have truly split punting duties.
Advantage: Push
Score prediction: Texas Tech 37, Oklahoma State 24
Bottom line: Texas Tech isn’t great on the road, but a lot of this could come down to how many Cowboys have just given up on a lost season. At this point, it looks like a lot. Will that change on senior day? Even when they’ve tried, defense hasn’t been a strength for Oklahoma State, so we’ll go with the offense of Texas Tech to come through.
