Why we projected a Branning win: State of Supreme Court race

• The anatomy of the “call” in the Branning-Kitchens Central Mississippi Supreme Court race was fairly simple.

Last Wednesday, as the rest of the world dreamt of turkey and cranberry sauce, Magnolia Tribune projected Jenifer Branning would unseat incumbent Supreme Court Justice Jim Kitchens in a hotly contested election for the state’s High Court.

The anatomy of the “call” was fairly simple.

After big pockets of absentee votes in Hinds and Rankin County were counted, along with Holmes County’s entire tally, Branning led Kitchens by 1,216. This left small pockets of received absentee ballots in Holmes (173) and Yazoo County (127), mail-in ballots not yet received (3,056), and affidavit ballots cast as a precaution when there are voter ID or registration problems.

If the received absentees in Holmes and Yazoo break in line with in-person voting in those counties — Kitchens won Holmes, Branning won Yazoo — Kitchens would net 90 votes, bringing Branning’s lead down to 1,126.

Turning to the mail-in absentee ballots, Mississippi law requires the ballots be postmarked on Election Day, but allows them to be counted if received by the Circuit Clerk within five business days. Holidays and weekends are excluded. According to the Secretary of State’s Office this means that outstanding ballots must be received by Wednesday, December 4th, at 5 p.m. in order to be counted.

The Fifth Circuit recently ruled the Mississippi law allowing mail-in ballots to be counted past Election Day unconstitutional, but because of procedural requirements, the ruling did not immediately impact this election cycle.

Of the 3,056 mail-in absentees not returned as of last Wednesday, roughly 75 percent were in counties Branning won on election night. What’s more, Branning’s performance on absentees actually outpaced her in-person performance in the counties with the most concentrated vote. As an example, Branning only won 24 percent of the Hinds County in-person voting, but 36 percent of the absentee vote there. In Rankin County, where she won approximately 70 percent of in-person voting, she won over 80 percent of the absentee ballots.

If all of the not returned absentee ballots came in, Kitchens would have to win approximately 69 percent of the vote to overtake Branning. Fewer ballots returned would mean an even higher percentage required. As an example, if only 2,000 of the not returned ballots came in by the legal deadline, Kitchens would need to win approximately 80 percent of the vote.

The likelihood of a significant portion of the outstanding mail-in ballots being returned is low. Case in point, between last Wednesday morning and Monday morning, a total of 98 ballots out of the 3,056 were received. Of the new mail-in absentee ballots received, the three biggest counties were Madison (39), Lauderdale (31), and Rankin (12). Branning led all three comfortably on election night.

Taken in concert, Kitchens would need an uncharacteristically high percentage of not yet returned absentee ballots to come in and also to win an incredibly high percentage of those ballots, despite the fact that 3/4ths of them were issued in counties Branning won and Branning has been outperforming on absentees. It is theoretically possible, but improbable.

The total number of received ballots reported on tomorrow (Tuesday) should give a fairly solid picture of what to expect in terms of mail-in volume. Logistically speaking, ballots postmarked by last Tuesday should be in the possession of the Circuit Clerk today (Monday).

After Wednesday’s deadline to receive the mail-in ballots, county officials must certify the election results with the Secretary of State’s Office by Friday, December 6th.