All eyes might still be on JD Vance as Trump’s heir apparent but there’s no guarantee that the current vice-president will lead the Republican ticket in 2028. Recent polling might suggest that Vance is the favourite but within the White House, a new suspect is emerging. That would be secretary of state Marco Rubio, who has quietly become the most effective player in the Trump administration.
While it is sometimes difficult to determine what Vance actually does each day, Rubio’s agenda is loud and clear – particularly as it pertains to Trump’s ambitions for Latin America. It was Rubio, back in September, who laid out the president’s brazen policy of destroying what the US believes are narcotics-laden speedboats heading from the Caribbean to the country. “Blow them up if that’s what it takes” said Rubio in fluent Spanish, referring to foreign criminal and drug-trafficking organisations during a press conference alongside the minister of foreign affairs of Ecuador in Quito. That week, the US launched the campaign of Caribbean speedboat attacks that has now claimed more than 80 lives.
Rubio’s ascent comes as Trump is losing ground with Latinos, who voted for the president in record numbers last November. Recent data from the Pew Research Center paints a gloomy picture, revealing that 70 per cent of Latinos disapprove of the way that Trump is handling his job.
The chief culprit here is Trump’s punitive immigration policy, which 65 per cent of Latinos view negatively. As a Latino and son of Cuban immigrants, Rubio makes for an obvious middleman between leery Hispanics and an aggressive administration. But this would be a thankless proposition made impossible by images of ICE officers separating Latino families. The president also puts scant stock in identity politics and its potential optics, no matter how favourable.
Instead, Trump has Rubio shuttling across the globe. In October it was to Israel to tout Trump’s fragile Gaza ceasefire, then to Asia to support his boss at the Asean summits. And, most recently, he was in Geneva and Florida to negotiate the fate of Ukraine. Back home, Rubio sits mere feet away from Vance in the West Wing when dignitaries come to town, both within touching distance of their potential kingmaker.
Whether in Washington or on the road, Rubio’s focus on foreign policy places him front and centre, while avoiding the domestic crises – from the Jeffrey Epstein saga to the government shutdown – eroding the administration’s appeal. Most meaningfully, as was the case in Ecuador, Rubio is often delivering key administration messaging directly in Spanish to populations who appreciate authentic engagement.
Though Washington-watchers are pushing a Vance-first narrative for 2028 – one which the media insists that Rubio supports – Trump’s world is nothing if not built on contradictions. Remember, no one really thought that Vance would be selected for vice-president until he was.
Still, Vance’s sheer familiarity will work against Rubio. Which is why a likelier scenario – at least among convention-minded observers – is a Vance-Rubio ticket in 2028. Such a pairing would solidify Maga’s legacy both at home and abroad, while transforming a pair of adversaries into convenient-yet-mighty allies. But this would also result in the awkward pairing of a vice-president far older and vastly more politically experienced than his president. Vance, after all, had only been US senator for two years before he assumed his current role; Rubio more than seven times that before he was sworn in as secretary of state.
With all indications that the US is about to do something in Venezuela, December might prove to be Rubio’s most diplomatic outing yet. The entire world will undoubtedly be watching, including his boss, forever testing his protégé for a still uncertain future.
David Kaufman is a writer and editor based in New York. For more opinion, analysis and insight, subscribe to Monocle today.Want more? Charlotte McDonald-Gibson knows where the Maga crowd hangs out after work and it’s not all bad. Take a look inside the raucous Butterworth’s restaurant here.
