Brad Powers’ CFB Best Bets

A potential coaching edge isn’t being properly priced in here. I’d play Florida down to +10.5 as a result. 

Florida has a new offensive coordinator in Buster Faulkner, who’s very familiar with Georgia, having been on the Bulldogs’ staff from 2020-2022, winning a pair of national titles. 

Faulkner was Georgia Tech’s offensive coordinator from 2023-2025, facing the Bulldogs three times. Georgia Tech covered all three matchups by an average of 13.3 points per game. In the 2024 game, Faulkner’s offense put up 563 yards against Georgia’s defense, the most the Bulldogs had allowed in a game in six years.

Faulkner might be one of the few coaches who’ve figured out how to attack a Kirby Smart defense.

While both Florida quarterbacks are listed as questionable on the availability report, I expect them to play.

Finally, are we getting ‘good’ Florida or ‘bad’ Florida here? ‘Good’ Florida is the team that crushed top-five Ole Miss at home and won on the road against top-10 Texas. ‘Bad’ Florida is the one that got blown out by Missouri and South Carolina.

I’d like to think that, coming off a bye week and playing its rival, we’re more likely to see ‘Good’ Florida on Saturday afternoon.

This would be only the fifth time in Ohio State history that the Buckeyes have started a true freshman at quarterback.

The spread has clearly moved (Ohio State would have been around an 11-point favorite), but I don’t think the total has adjusted enough.

Even though Ryan Day has had a bye week to get Luke Fahey ready, I still expect a conservative offensive game plan. Ohio State has averaged just 25 points per game on the road over the last couple of seasons.

However, Ohio State’s defense remains the best unit on the field, ranking No. 4 in scoring and allowing just 13.4 points per game. The Buckeyes should have success against a USC offense that’s one of the most overrated in college football.

The Trojans’ offense is living off the reputation of its play-caller, Lincoln Riley. USC doesn’t rank in the Top 30 in yards per play, yards per game, or points per game. The Trojans aren’t explosive either, ranking No. 104 in EPA on successful plays.

However, USC’s defense is underrated. The Trojans have allowed just 331 yards per game, the fewest against them in any season since 2008. In last week’s loss to Wisconsin, they only allowed 200 yards.

I would play this to 51.

I’d play the Over to 53.5.

The market is struggling to keep up with Miami’s No. 1 offense in yards per play, yards per game, and points per game. Miami games are 6-1 to the Over, clearing the total by an average of 10.4 points per game.

In addition, Miami’s defensive numbers have been skewed by a weak slate of non-conference opponents, including Central Michigan and Florida A&M, which combined for just 10 points against the Hurricanes.

On the other side, North Carolina‘s offense has been better than expected this season, thanks to receiving threats Jordan Shipp and Jelani Thurman. They should have great success against a Miami defense that has allowed 300-plus passing yards to Wake Forest, Florida State, and Pitt.

North Carolina’s defense has also benefited from a weak slate of opposing offenses. 

The Tar Heels have faced just one offense that ranks in the Top 40 in scoring offense: Notre Dame, which scored 37 points in the rain. The Fighting Irish could have scored more, but a touchdown was called back because of a penalty, and they were stopped on downs at the two-yard line on another drive.