Houston won’t feel Beryl’s effects yet. Here’s when it gets rough

As Beryl presses on as a tropical storm across the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, Houston will escape the weekend with minimal Beryl influences, aside from the extra muggy air mass that’s on top of the region.

Afternoon storms this weekend may pack slightly heavier rain because of the influx of tropical moisture, but Beryl’s rainfall likely won’t arrive in Houston until late Sunday into Monday.

STAY ALERT: This time of year, it’s important to keep track of active tropical storms or hurricanes. Use our Texas Storm Tracker to monitor Beryl.

Despite a potentially rainy period early next week, Houston at this point should dodge the worst Beryl has to offer. Cumulative rainfall amounts through the middle of the week could be 4 to 6 inches, especially towards the coast. Locally higher totals are possible, but manageable for area rivers and streams.

Expect breezy conditions until Tuesday as Beryl approaches. Wind gusts could reach close to tropical storm force, around 39 mph. When tropical storms or hurricanes make landfall, sudden tornadoes are possible. Although the risk is low, it’s important to stay alert through Monday.

Temperatures will be cooler because of increased rain, clouds, and wind. Highs early next week will be in the upper 80s and low 90s.

The first major hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season formed in late June and is now a tropical storm on its final approach in the Gulf of Mexico. Fortunately, Beryl has weakened dramatically since it first struck the Windward Islands as a major hurricane on Monday. However, that doesn’t mean it couldn’t regain strength over the weekend.

BERYL BREAKS RECORDS: One expert says Beryl could be a signal for what’s to come this season. Find out how here.

Beryl is forecast to bring South Texas rain, wind, and rough surf through the weekend and into early next week. When will the worst weather arrive and what can Houston expect from Beryl?

Confidence is high that the forecast path will bring Beryl into South Texas on Sunday night through early Monday.

The first sign that Beryl is approaching Texas will be increasingly rough surf. This weekend, it’s important for locals and vacationers to pay attention to all beach hazard flags. This weekend, red flags will likely be up along the Texas Gulf Coast, indicating strong rip currents and dangerous rough surf. As a result, swimming will likely be unsafe in most cases.

Double red flags are possible this weekend, meaning that water is closed to the public because of hazardous conditions. This year, 19 rip current deaths have been reported, with two of those occurring in the Galveston area.  

The second indication of Beryl’s looming approach will be an increase in winds. Tropical storm-force wind gusts stronger than 39 mph, are expected to arrive early Sunday from Corpus Christi to Brownsville. Beryl isn’t expected to pack the same winds for Texas as it did for parts of the Caribbean earlier in the week, but we could see hurricane-force wind gusts of 74 mph in the Rio Grande Valley.

When it rains, it pours, especially when it comes to tropical systems making landfall. The outer bands of Beryl are expected to reach South Texas by Sunday, bringing the heaviest rain along the coast early Monday. These tropical downpours could result in river flooding and flash flooding, particularly in areas with poor drainage in urban centers.

Even as the remnants of Beryl persist through the middle of the week, a continuous flow of deep tropical moisture will sustain the potential for heavy rain. Coastal areas may experience between 4 and 8 inches of rainfall from Sunday to Wednesday.

WHAT’S YOUR RISK? : You can use our interactive Texas Flood Map and Tracker to see what your long-term flood risk is where you live.

Coastal flooding may overwhelm normally flood-prone locations along the Texas Gulf Coast. While significant storm surge isn’t expected to be a factor, a long fetch of wind across the Gulf of Mexico will pile up water along the immediate coastline as we saw with Tropical Storm Alberto last month.

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