All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I’ve created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Thursday’s top batter prop bets
Curtis Mead | OVER 0.5 HR (+1200)
Projection: 10% chance of this bet hitting, with a $34.03 EV
Alec Bohm | OVER 0.5 HR (+980)
Projection: 12% chance of this bet hitting, with a $27.76 EV
Willson Contreras | OVER 0.5 RBI (+226)
Projection: 33% chance of this bet hitting, with a $9.18 EV
Munetaka Murakami | UNDER 0.5 H (+132)
Projection: 49% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.17 EV
Willy Adames | OVER 0.5 RBI (+287)
Projection: 30% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.64 EV
Thursday’s top pitcher prop bets
Cristopher Sanchez | UNDER 5.5 K (+117)
Projection: 59% chance of this bet hitting, with a $27.94 EV
Tarik Skubal | UNDER 7.5 K (-131)
Projection: 63% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.68 EV
Cam Schlittler | UNDER 6.5 K (-124)
Projection: 67% chance of this bet hitting, with a $25.32 EV
Ryan Feltner | UNDER 3.5 K (+117)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $15.99 EV
Edward Cabrera | UNDER 5.5 K (-151)
Projection: 67% chance of this bet hitting, with a $16.97 EV
THE BAT X: Team Projections
Top betting trends
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today’s action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last season’s play.
Chicago Cubs Moneyline:
The Cubs are currently on an eight-game winning streak. (+8.40 Units / 82% ROI). Current odds: +104
New York Mets Team Total UNDER:
The Mets have gone under for this bet in nine straight games. (+9.55 Units / 93% ROI). Current odds: 3.5 @ -125
New York Yankees Run Line:
The Yankees have won this bet in five straight games. (+6.20 Units / 104% ROI). Current odds: -1 @ -125
Chicago White Sox 1st 5 innings (F5) Team Total OVER:
The White Sox have outscored this line in six consecutive road games. (+6.00 Units / 66% ROI). Current odds: 1.5 @ -135
Detroit Tigers 1st 5 innings (F5) Run Line:
Detroit has won this bet in four of their last five contests. (+3.00 Units / 52% ROI). Current odds: -0.5 @ -140
