Rookie of the Year is the most challenging award to predict this season.
There is generally a formula to look for: A skilled player on a rebuilding/developing team who is going to have the ball in his hands a lot and have the chance to put up numbers. Victor Wembanyama was that a season ago, and before him Paolo Banchero (2023), LaMelo Ball (2021), Ja Morant (2020), Luka Doncic (2019) and others fit mold.
However, this year’s draft class is light on guys who fit that mold. No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher is a development project on a team with Trae Young, while No. 2 pick Alex Sarr will get limited touches at the five in Washington behind Jonas Valanciunas. The list goes on and on. This is not made with much confidence, but here’s my prediction:
2024-25 NBA Rookie of the Year:
1. Zach Edey
2. Reed Sheppard
3. Stephon Castle
The Grizzlies’ Edey is not going to put up the “you can’t ignore me” numbers of most previous ROY winners, but what he’s going to do is start games and play a key role for what could well be a top-six team in the West. He’s going to play meaningful minutes in meaningful games, and if that happens it will put him ahead of his colleagues in this race. Edey isn’t often spectacular but he is 7’4″ and is very good at using that size and being 7’4″ on both ends of the court, something Morant and the Grizzlies will take full advantage of.
The Rockets’ Sheppard was the standout at Summer League, where he averaged 20 points, 5.3 assists, 4.8 rebounds and 2.7 steals a game, all with a solid 57% true shooting percentage. The challenge is going to be Ime Udoka getting Sheppard enough minutes. Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green are the starting guards but behind them are Amen Thompson, Cam Whitmore, Dillon Brooks can play some two in big lineups, and Aaron Holiday is in there, too. Is Sheppard going to get enough run to win this?
Castle is my favorite player in this class, but how much time does he get at the point with Chris Paul on the roster? Rob Dillingham could put up numbers in Minnesota as a bench scorer, and Dalton Knecht’s shooting should gain favor with J.J. Redick in Los Angeles, if he gets in the rotation and puts up numbers he could garner votes as well.
Or, this is the kind of year where somebody comes out of nowhere to win the award.
