The NFL coaching carousel is already spinning.
The Jets and Saints have fired their coaches, the Jaguars could very soon (checks phone) and it’s easy to see another five jobs opening up, meaning the league will likely churn through a quarter of its head coaches this offseason.
That comes with the job, and speaks to the lack of patience NFL teams have with their coaches. New doesn’t always mean better — this season’s eight new head coaches are a combined 35-48, with the Chargers‘ Jim Harbaugh (7-3), the Commanders‘ Dan Quinn (7-4) and the Falcons‘ Raheem Morris (6-5) the only ones with winning records.
All three had been NFL head coaches before, so is that momentum for more experienced hires — “retreads,” in NFL hiring parlance? None of the young offensive types has had a huge impact, so will that shift the tilt back toward defensive coaches?
We’re offering up 10 of the most logical head coach candidates, a mix of former head coaches and up-and-coming assistants, offense and defense, young and Belichick. It’s reasonable to think that some of the head coaches fired in this cycle could immediately land with another team as head coach, so that complicates both the pool and the projected list of vacancies.
Much could change in the final seven weeks of the season, but for now, we’ll project eight openings, and we’ll say Cleveland’s Kevin Stefanski is newly available, but the Bengals‘ Zac Taylor and the Colts‘ Shane Steichen are not.
Ben Johnson, Lions OC (age 38)
Johnson was a top candidate a year ago, and the Lions are even better with him back for another season, scoring touchdowns on their first seven drives in Sunday’s win over the Jaguars. Regardless of how far Detroit goes in the playoffs, Johnson should again be one of the most coveted NFL assistants. The Lions are averaging 33.6 points per game, a field goal ahead of the rest of the league. Can he bring the same culture and energy that Dan Campbell has to Detroit? That’s a larger challenge.
BEST FIT: Johnson should have his pick of jobs, and he’ll choose a talented team close to the playoffs, with salary-cap flexibility and an ascending quarterback. Our pick? The Bears write a huge check to invest in Caleb Williams and their future.
Jesse Minter, Chargers DC (41)
NFL teams like to choose the opposite of what they just fired, so if you have a veteran offensive coach, you go young on defense. The best of that group looks to be Minter, who has produced the NFL’s No. 1 scoring defense in his first year as a coordinator. He’s worked for both Harbaughs, with four years under John with the Ravens and now the past two under Jim at Michigan and Los Angeles. What Minter has done with the Chargers is all the more impressive considering the rookies in key positions and the turnaround they’ve made. Pair him with a strong offensive coordinator who can have autonomy on that side of the ball, and you could have a winner.
BEST FIT: We’ll go with Dallas, thinking that Jerry Jones needs a big swing to get the Cowboys back on the map as a relevant playoff team again.
[READ MORE: Meet the man who has the Chargers playing historically stingy defense]
Bill Belichick, former Patriots coach (72)
The league essentially passed on a chance to hire Belichick a year ago, despite his six Super Bowl rings as a head coach and two more as an assistant. His final years with New England were a struggle, and he might have to concede his next role is only as a head coach and not as a general manager as well. Pair him with a strong front office and he can try to catch Don Shula as the NFL’s winningest all-time head coach. Belichick is 15 wins shy including playoffs and 27 shy in regular-season wins, which likely means at least a few more years.
BEST FIT: Belichick has experience with almost half the teams with expected vacancies. But nobody goes big like Las Vegas, and with Tom Brady as a minority owner, we’ll pair Belichick with the Raiders. Will they win? Not sure. Will people watch? Yes, they will.
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Mike Vrabel, former Titans coach (49)
Vrabel went 54-45 in six years in Tennessee but had no playoff wins his last four years. He’s worked as a consultant for the Browns this season, which means the ownership in Cleveland has been able to see him up close, and he has a good read of the talent on the roster, which should add up to more than two wins. Could Vrabel get the Browns back to the elite defense they had in 2023? Can he win despite a huge amount of cap space and cash still devoted to Deshaun Watson, whether he’s the starting quarterback or not?
BEST FIT: We’ll have Vrabel stay in Cleveland, taking over the Browns with a smidge of awkwardness after a wholly disappointing 2024.
Kevin Stefanski, current Browns coach (42)
Stefanski has won NFL Coach of the Year honors twice in the past four seasons with Cleveland, but he could be out of a job if there isn’t an uptick from the team’s 2-8 mark. He still has a winning record as a head coach (39-38) and would immediately become one of the better options for teams seeking an experienced offensive mind.
BEST FIT: We’ll pair Stefanski with the Giants, figuring they can move on from Brian Daboll and Daniel Jones and reset with a new coach and quarterback, perhaps a new GM as well.
Kliff Kingsbury, Commanders OC (45)
He’s a retread and a youngish offensive mind, and what he’s done with Washington and Jayden Daniels was one of the more impressive jobs in the first half of the 2024 season. Will the Commanders sustain a high level of play and make the playoffs? That probably goes a long way to whether he’s coveted or just working his way back to consideration. He went 28-37-1 in four years as Arizona’s head coach, so you’re hiring on promise as much as production.
BEST FIT: We’ll put him in a huge if difficult job with the Jets. That could mean trying to squeeze one more playoff run out of Aaron Rodgers at age 41 next fall, or it could mean a restart with a new QB.
Aaron Glenn, Lions DC (52)
Between Johnson and Glenn, whose Lions defense is top five in points allowed and takeaways, Dan Campbell’s staff could be raided by teams hoping to emulate what Detroit has built. Glenn spent eight years of his playing career with the Jets, but they seem more likely to hire an offensive-minded coach. If you’re looking for a coach-GM pairing, Glenn could go with current Lions assistant general manager Ray Agnew, who also worked in the Rams‘ front office.
BEST FIT: The Saints aren’t in a great situation because of an old roster and limited cap flexibility, but Glenn finished his playing career there and spent five years as an assistant under Sean Payton, so there’s a good history.
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Todd Monken, Ravens OC (58)
Monken has worked wonders with Baltimore’s offense, and especially if the Ravens can make an extended playoff run, he’ll be coveted as much as offensive candidates 20 years younger. He was a head coach at Southern Miss and has a good mix of NFL and college experience. His first NFL job came with the Jaguars as receivers coach from 2007-10.
BEST FIT: We’ll pair him with the Jaguars. It’s a tough job to assess, with a proven quarterback in Trevor Lawrence, modest division in AFC South, only two years removed from a playoff win, but also a team that has looked bad in all aspects in 2024.
Liam Coen, Bucs OC (39)
We’re basing this on eight jobs being open, but if there’s a ninth to come open, it could be Coen getting promoted in Tampa. Todd Bowles has a chance to right the ship, and the Bucs’ schedule is easy enough that they could go 5-2 or better and salvage a winning record. If they fall short of that and decide to make a change, they’ve fired-and-promoted before, with Raheem Morris and Dirk Koetter, to limited success. We probably wouldn’t have included Dave Canales on this kind of list a year ago and he got a head-coaching job, and Coen’s first-year production with Baker Mayfield has been markedly better than Canales’ a year ago.
BEST FIT: We think Coen will get his first head-coach interviews but will ultimately stay in Tampa for another season.
Dan Lanning, Oregon head coach (38)
Could college football lose a top coach to the NFL for a second year in a row? Jim Harbaugh’s success with the Chargers has a caveat because he’d been an NFL head coach before. The recent models for hiring a college head coach with limited or no NFL experience aren’t great — Chip Kelly, Matt Rhule. We’ll include Lanning here as a wild card. If a college coach were tired of the circus of NIL and the transfer portal, the NFL life might seem simpler by comparison.
BEST FIT: We’ll say Lanning stays with the Ducks and gets a nice raise and table the discussion until next year.
Greg Auman is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He previously spent a decade covering the Buccaneers for the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.
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