In an offseason headlined by established MLB stars like Kyle Tucker, Cody Bellinger and Alex Bregman being free agents, Munetaka Murakami is shaping up to be the most interesting player on the market because of how extreme the potential outcomes for him could turn out to be.
Per ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel, the New York Yankees are a team to watch in the Murakami sweepstakes primarily because of “their expected evaluation” of him as opposed to trying to fill an immediate need.
McDaniel cited a number of other clubs as an obvious fit based on their current roster construction, including the Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants, Houston Astros and Toronto Blue Jays.
Contract predictions for Murakami are all over the map right now. MLB Trade Rumors projected an eight-year, $180 million deal, which ranks third among all position players behind Tucker (11 years, $400 million) and Bo Bichette (eight years, $208 million).
McDaniel was more conservative in his projection from Nov. 6, suggesting a five-year, $80 million contract that would add up to around $94 million altogether with the posting fee included.
The primary issue for MLB teams when evaluating Murakami is contact rate. He has had a strikeout rate over 28 percent in each of the past three seasons in NPB and a batting average under .100 on pitches against pitches of at least 93 mph in 2025.
When Murakami makes contact, it’s usually very loud and the ball goes very far. He has had an OPS over 1.000 three times in the last six seasons, including an 1.168 mark in 2022 when he hit 56 homers in 141 games.
A team like the Yankees, who have prioritized things like exit velocity in their scouting of hitters, would likely look at someone like Murakami and his average exit velocity of 94 mph in 2025 and bet they could translate that into MLB production.
For comparison, Juan Soto ranked sixth in MLB last season with a 93.8 mph average exit velocity.
Another reason Murakami’s value is hard to pin down is because he doesn’t have much positional value. His primary position in NPB was at third base, but he is well below-average at that spot making a move to first base or DH likely in MLB.
McDaniel cited two-time All-Star Brent Rooker of the Athletics as the “hopeful outcome” for Murakami in Major League Baseball. Rooker has hit at least 30 homers in three consecutive seasons and owns a .259/.336/.493 career slash line in 525 games.
Murakami was limited to just 69 games in 2025 due to an oblique injury, but he still managed to hit .286/.392/.659 with 24 homers.
